Published on: 2025-02-11

Intelligence Report: Trump Is Bullying Jordan and Egypt to Help in Ethnic Cleansing of Gaza It Isn’t Working – The Intercept

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The report highlights attempts by Donald Trump to pressure Jordan and Egypt into supporting a plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza, which has faced significant resistance. Both countries have rejected the proposal due to potential political and security repercussions. The strategic recommendation is to monitor regional responses and prepare for potential destabilization.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Strong regional alliances and historical peace agreements with Israel.

Weaknesses: Internal political instability and economic dependencies on foreign aid.

Opportunities: Potential for diplomatic engagement to strengthen regional stability.

Threats: Risk of regional conflict escalation and domestic unrest.

Cross-Impact Matrix

Events in Gaza have the potential to destabilize neighboring countries, particularly Jordan and Egypt, by increasing domestic unrest and straining diplomatic relations. The withholding of U.S. aid could further exacerbate economic challenges.

Scenario Generation

Scenario 1: Successful diplomatic intervention leads to a peaceful resolution, enhancing regional stability.
Scenario 2: Continued resistance from Jordan and Egypt results in increased tensions and potential conflict.
Scenario 3: Economic pressures from withheld aid lead to internal instability in Jordan and Egypt.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The proposed plan poses significant risks to regional stability, with potential for increased conflict and humanitarian crises. The economic impact of withheld aid could destabilize Jordan and Egypt, leading to broader geopolitical consequences.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic efforts to address the concerns of Jordan and Egypt and prevent escalation.
• Consider alternative solutions that respect regional sovereignty and humanitarian principles.
• Enhance intelligence monitoring to anticipate and mitigate potential unrest.

Outlook:

Best-case: Diplomatic resolutions lead to strengthened regional alliances and stability.
Worst-case: Escalation of conflict results in humanitarian crises and regional instability.
Most likely: Continued diplomatic tensions with potential for sporadic unrest.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Donald Trump, Abdullah, Yousef Munayyer, Lara Friedman, Daniel Levy, and Benjamin Netanyahu. These individuals are central to the unfolding events and their actions should be closely monitored.