Published on: 2025-06-09

Intelligence Report: Methodology – Pew Research Center

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Pew Research Center employs a comprehensive methodology to estimate religious composition globally, regionally, and at the country level. This report highlights the Center’s collaboration with researchers and the use of diverse data sources, including censuses and large-scale demographic surveys. Key challenges include accurately measuring religious identity and demographic characteristics. Recommendations focus on enhancing data collection methods to improve accuracy and comparability across regions.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Examines the multi-layered approach to understanding religious composition, considering surface events like demographic shifts, systemic structures such as data collection methodologies, and deeper worldviews influencing religious identity.

Cross-Impact Simulation

Models the potential impacts of religious demographic changes on regional stability, economic dependencies, and social cohesion.

Scenario Generation

Explores potential futures based on varying assumptions about religious switching rates and demographic trends, identifying plausible scenarios for policy planning.

Cognitive Bias Stress Test

Assesses potential biases in data interpretation and classification of religious identities, ensuring robust and unbiased analysis.

Narrative Pattern Analysis

Deconstructs narratives around religious identity and affiliation, assessing their influence on regional and global security dynamics.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The methodology’s reliance on diverse data sources presents risks related to data consistency and accuracy. Emerging threats include potential misinterpretations of religious demographics that could impact geopolitical stability. Systemic vulnerabilities arise from the lack of standardized data collection methods across countries, which may lead to incomplete or biased assessments.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance data collection techniques by standardizing survey questions and methodologies across regions to improve comparability and accuracy.
• Develop scenario-based analyses to anticipate potential shifts in religious demographics and their implications for regional stability.
• Implement regular reviews and updates of data sources to ensure the most current and reliable information is used in analyses.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Caspar Krakow, a researcher at the University of Economic Studies, collaborates with the Pew Research Center on this methodology. His contributions are pivotal in refining demographic measures and religious composition estimates.

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, data accuracy, demographic analysis, regional stability