Published on: 2025-06-11

Intelligence Report: Myanmar on the ‘path to self-destruction’ if violence does not end – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Myanmar is at a critical juncture, facing potential self-destruction if ongoing violence persists. The aftermath of a military coup and a catastrophic earthquake has exacerbated the situation. Immediate cessation of hostilities and a focus on inclusive peace processes are essential to prevent further destabilization. Key recommendations include enforcing ceasefires, protecting civilians, and ensuring transparent electoral processes.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Cognitive Bias Stress Test

Potential biases in the assessment have been challenged through red teaming, ensuring a balanced view of the conflict’s trajectory.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Probabilistic forecasting suggests a high likelihood of continued conflict unless significant interventions occur, with potential escalation if current trends persist.

Network Influence Mapping

Influence relationships between the military junta, opposition groups, and international actors have been mapped, highlighting key leverage points for diplomatic intervention.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict poses significant risks to regional stability, with potential spillover effects into neighboring countries. The humanitarian crisis, particularly affecting the Rohingya population, could lead to increased refugee flows and regional tensions. Economic instability and disrupted reconstruction efforts further compound the risks.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate international diplomatic efforts to enforce a ceasefire and initiate peace talks.
• Support for humanitarian aid, focusing on the most affected populations, including the Rohingya.
• Scenario-based projections suggest that without intervention, violence will likely escalate (worst case), while successful diplomatic efforts could stabilize the situation (best case).

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Julie Bishop, Win Myint, Aung San Suu Kyi

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, humanitarian crisis, regional stability, conflict resolution