Published on: 2025-06-11

Intelligence Report: Confidence in Trump to Handle Global Issues – Pew Research Center

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Pew Research Center survey reveals a general lack of confidence in Donald Trump’s ability to manage major international issues. Confidence levels are notably low in countries such as Mexico, Canada, and several European nations, while higher in Kenya, Nigeria, and Israel. Ideological divides significantly influence these perceptions, with right-wing party supporters showing more confidence in Trump compared to their left-wing counterparts. This report recommends monitoring ideological shifts and their potential impact on international relations.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Surface events indicate widespread skepticism about Trump’s handling of global issues, particularly in Western nations. Systemic structures show ideological divides shaping confidence levels, with right-wing supporters more favorable. Worldviews reflect a polarized global perception of U.S. leadership. Myths surrounding Trump’s rhetoric and policy decisions influence public opinion.

Cross-Impact Simulation

The survey suggests potential ripple effects in international relations, particularly in regions with strong ideological divides. Countries with high confidence in Trump may align more closely with U.S. policies, while those with low confidence could seek alternative alliances.

Scenario Generation

Divergent narratives include a scenario where increased confidence in Trump’s policies leads to strengthened U.S. alliances with right-leaning governments, versus a scenario where continued skepticism results in weakened U.S. influence globally.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ideological divide poses a risk to cohesive international policy-making. Emerging threats include potential diplomatic rifts and economic tensions. Systemic vulnerabilities may arise from polarized perceptions of U.S. leadership, affecting global cooperation on issues like climate change and conflict resolution.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance diplomatic engagement with countries expressing low confidence to mitigate potential diplomatic rifts.
• Monitor ideological shifts within key nations to anticipate changes in international alliances.
• Scenario-based projections: Best case – Improved diplomatic relations through targeted engagement; Worst case – Increased isolation of the U.S. on the global stage; Most likely – Continued polarization with selective alliances.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro, Benjamin Netanyahu, Javier Milei, Yoon Suk Yeol

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, ideological divides, international relations, diplomatic engagement