Published on: 2025-06-12

Intelligence Report: Gang violence displaces a record 13 million Haitians – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The escalating gang violence in Haiti has displaced a record 13 million people, representing a significant humanitarian crisis. This displacement has intensified since June, with a 30% increase since December. The epicenter of this crisis is Port-au-Prince, with violence spreading to other regions such as the Artibonite department. Immediate international intervention is critical to stabilize the situation and prevent further regional destabilization.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Surface events include the mass displacement and humanitarian crisis. Systemic structures involve gang control and lack of effective governance. Worldviews reflect a pervasive sense of insecurity and abandonment. Myths include the belief in the inevitability of violence and chaos.

Cross-Impact Simulation

Neighboring Caribbean countries may experience increased refugee inflows, straining resources and potentially destabilizing local economies. Economic dependencies on remittances may be disrupted, affecting regional stability.

Scenario Generation

Plausible futures range from continued violence and displacement to successful international intervention leading to stabilization. Key variables include international response, local governance reforms, and community empowerment initiatives.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing violence poses significant risks to regional stability, with potential spillover effects into neighboring countries. The humanitarian crisis could exacerbate existing economic vulnerabilities, leading to increased poverty and social unrest. There is also a risk of international criminal networks exploiting the chaos for trafficking and other illicit activities.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate international security support is essential to stabilize affected areas and protect civilians.
• Empower local communities, particularly women and youth, to lead initiatives aimed at reducing violence.
• Scenario-based projections suggest that without intervention, the situation may worsen, leading to further displacement and regional destabilization. Conversely, coordinated efforts could lead to gradual stabilization and recovery.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Amy Pope, Mara Isabel Salvador, Bob Rae, Philmon Yang

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, humanitarian crisis, regional stability, international intervention