Published on: 2025-06-12

Intelligence Report: Haiti Sees Record Displacement as 13 Million Flee Violence – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Haiti is experiencing unprecedented internal displacement, with nearly 13 million people affected by escalating violence, particularly in the capital, Port-au-Prince, and the Artibonite department. The situation demands urgent international intervention to address humanitarian needs and stabilize the region. Key recommendations include increasing humanitarian aid, enhancing security measures, and addressing the root causes of violence.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

– **Surface Events**: The immediate issue is the mass displacement due to gang violence and insecurity.
– **Systemic Structures**: Weak governance, lack of effective law enforcement, and economic instability contribute to the crisis.
– **Worldviews**: Perceptions of government ineffectiveness and international neglect exacerbate local frustrations.
– **Myths**: The belief that violence is an inevitable aspect of Haitian life hinders proactive solutions.

Cross-Impact Simulation

– Neighboring countries may face increased refugee flows, straining resources and potentially destabilizing regional security.
– Economic dependencies on remittances could be disrupted, affecting both local and regional economies.

Scenario Generation

– **Best Case**: International aid stabilizes the situation, reducing violence and displacement.
– **Worst Case**: Continued violence leads to further displacement and regional instability.
– **Most Likely**: Sporadic violence persists, with ongoing humanitarian challenges and limited international response.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The displacement crisis poses significant risks, including humanitarian emergencies, regional instability, and potential spillover effects into neighboring countries. The strain on local resources and infrastructure could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, leading to long-term socio-economic challenges.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Increase international humanitarian aid to address immediate needs such as shelter, food, and healthcare.
• Enhance security measures to protect civilians and restore order in affected areas.
• Invest in long-term solutions addressing the root causes of violence, including poverty alleviation and governance reforms.
• Scenario-based projections suggest focusing on strengthening local resilience to mitigate worst-case outcomes.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

– Amy Pope

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, humanitarian crisis, regional stability, governance challenges