Published on: 2025-03-17

Intelligence Report: Afghan women activists in Pakistan fear mass deportations – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Afghan women activists residing in Pakistan are facing imminent threats of deportation back to Afghanistan, where they risk persecution under the Taliban regime. The situation is exacerbated by Pakistan’s large-scale repatriation efforts, which are driven by deteriorating relations with Afghanistan and internal security concerns. Immediate attention and intervention are required to address the humanitarian and security implications of these deportations.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

Afghan women activists, including Zahra Mousavi and Jamila Ahmadi, have fled to Pakistan to escape the oppressive Taliban regime. Despite seeking asylum, they face deportation due to Pakistan’s strict visa policies and ongoing repatriation drive. The activists have been involved in protests against the Taliban, advocating for women’s rights, which places them at significant risk if returned to Afghanistan. Reports indicate harsh treatment of deported individuals, including detention in severe conditions. The Pakistani government’s stance is influenced by strained relations with Afghanistan and security concerns related to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The deportation of Afghan women activists poses several risks:

• Humanitarian Risk: Deportees face potential torture and persecution under the Taliban, violating international human rights standards.
• Regional Stability: Increased tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan could destabilize the region further, impacting cross-border relations and security.
• National Security: The presence of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and related security operations may escalate, affecting Pakistan’s internal stability.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in diplomatic dialogues with Pakistan to halt deportations and ensure protection for Afghan activists.
• Strengthen international pressure on the Taliban to uphold human rights, particularly for women.
• Enhance support for asylum processes and legal aid for Afghan refugees in Pakistan.

Outlook:

In the best-case scenario, diplomatic efforts lead to a temporary halt in deportations, allowing for international intervention. The worst-case scenario involves mass deportations, resulting in severe human rights violations. The most likely outcome is continued tension, with sporadic deportations and international condemnation.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Zahra Mousavi and Jamila Ahmadi, who are central to the activism efforts against the Taliban regime. The involvement of Osama Malik, a refugee lawyer, highlights the legal challenges faced by Afghan refugees in Pakistan.