Published on: 2025-10-01

Intelligence Report: Afghanistan Internet Shutdowns Imperil Rights – Human Rights Watch

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the Taliban’s internet shutdowns are primarily aimed at consolidating control and suppressing dissent, rather than preventing immoral behavior. This assessment is based on the widespread impact on education, commerce, and communication, which aligns with a strategy to limit opposition and control information flow. Confidence level: High. Recommended action: Engage international diplomatic channels to pressure for the restoration of internet services and support initiatives that provide alternative communication means to Afghan citizens.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Control and Suppression Hypothesis**: The Taliban’s internet shutdowns are intended to consolidate power by restricting access to information, suppressing dissent, and isolating the population from international influence.
2. **Moral Enforcement Hypothesis**: The shutdowns are genuinely aimed at preventing immoral behavior and aligning with the Taliban’s interpretation of Islamic law.

Using ACH 2.0, the Control and Suppression Hypothesis is better supported. Evidence includes the timing of shutdowns coinciding with increased restrictions on women’s education and reports of disrupted commerce and communication. The Moral Enforcement Hypothesis lacks corroborative evidence given the broad and indiscriminate nature of the shutdowns.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The Taliban’s public rationale for the shutdowns is genuine. The Afghan population lacks alternative communication methods.
– **Red Flags**: Lack of transparency from the Taliban regarding the shutdown’s scope and duration. Potential bias in reports from affected groups.
– **Blind Spots**: Limited insight into internal Taliban decision-making processes and potential external influences on their policies.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The internet shutdowns exacerbate existing socio-economic and gender inequalities, potentially leading to increased unrest and humanitarian crises. They also hinder international aid efforts and could provoke further isolation of Afghanistan from the global community. Cybersecurity risks may increase as individuals seek alternative, potentially insecure communication methods.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage with international organizations to advocate for the restoration of internet services in Afghanistan.
• Support initiatives to provide alternative communication technologies to Afghan citizens.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best: Restoration of internet services through international pressure and diplomatic engagement.
  • Worst: Prolonged shutdowns leading to severe humanitarian crises and increased regional instability.
  • Most Likely: Partial restoration with continued restrictions in areas deemed sensitive by the Taliban.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Fereshteh Abbasi
– Indrika Ratwatte

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus