Published on: 2025-11-04

Intelligence Report: After 2 years of devastating war will Arab countries now turn their backs on Israel – The Conversation Africa

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that Arab countries will maintain a pragmatic approach towards Israel, balancing public condemnation with strategic partnerships. Confidence level is moderate due to the complex interplay of regional politics and public opinion. Recommended action includes enhancing diplomatic engagement with key Arab states to reinforce existing ties and mitigate potential escalations.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: Arab countries will distance themselves from Israel, driven by public opinion and recent conflicts, leading to a deterioration of diplomatic relations.
2. **Hypothesis B**: Arab countries will continue to engage with Israel pragmatically, balancing public condemnation with strategic interests, such as economic and security partnerships.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis B is better supported by the evidence, including ongoing diplomatic engagements and economic initiatives like the Abraham Accords and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: Hypothesis A assumes that public opinion will significantly influence state policy. Hypothesis B assumes that strategic interests will outweigh public sentiment.
– **Red Flags**: Potential overestimation of public opinion’s impact on state policy. Inconsistent data on the depth of public support for Palestinian resistance.
– **Blind Spots**: Limited insight into internal decision-making processes of key Arab states.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Economic**: Disruption of trade and investment flows if relations deteriorate.
– **Geopolitical**: Potential realignment of regional alliances, with increased influence of non-Arab actors like Iran.
– **Psychological**: Heightened regional tensions could exacerbate public unrest.
– **Cascading Threats**: Escalation of proxy conflicts involving Iran and its allies.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance diplomatic efforts to reinforce ties with key Arab states, emphasizing mutual economic and security benefits.
• Monitor public opinion trends and their potential impact on regional policies.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best: Strengthened regional cooperation through expanded economic initiatives.
  • Worst: Breakdown of diplomatic relations leading to increased regional instability.
  • Most Likely: Continued pragmatic engagement with periodic diplomatic tensions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– **Individuals**: Not specified.
– **Entities**: Israel, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Hamas, Arab League.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus