Published on: 2025-07-15

Intelligence Report: After Iran The Houthis Should Be Enemy No 1 – The National Interest

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Houthis, backed by Iran, are emerging as a significant threat to regional stability and U.S. interests in the Middle East. Recent attacks on Red Sea shipping highlight their capability and intent to disrupt. The U.S. and its allies must reassess their strategic posture towards the Houthis to prevent further destabilization.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

ACH 2.0

Analysis indicates the Houthis are leveraging Iranian support to enhance their military capabilities, aiming to exert control over strategic maritime routes.

Indicators Development

Increased online propaganda and logistical movements suggest preparation for further operations, potentially targeting commercial vessels.

Narrative Pattern Analysis

The Houthis are framing their actions as defensive, aligning with broader Iranian narratives of resistance against foreign intervention.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The Houthis’ actions risk escalating tensions in the Red Sea, potentially disrupting global trade routes. Their alignment with Iran could embolden other regional proxies, increasing the likelihood of coordinated attacks against U.S. and allied interests. The potential for cyber operations targeting maritime infrastructure also presents a significant risk.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance maritime security measures and intelligence-sharing among regional partners to deter Houthi aggression.
• Consider diplomatic initiatives to isolate the Houthis and reduce Iranian influence in Yemen.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Diplomatic efforts lead to a reduction in hostilities and stabilization of maritime routes.
  • Worst Case: Escalation of Houthi attacks results in significant disruption to global trade and regional conflict.
  • Most Likely: Continued low-level conflict with periodic disruptions to shipping lanes.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Eran Ortal

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus