Published on: 2025-10-10

Intelligence Report: AI Disinformation Security Threats from Africa Middle East 2025-2026 Analysis of 189 Documented Campaigns Across 39 African Countries and 15 Middle Eastern Nations – GlobeNewswire

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The report identifies a significant increase in AI-powered disinformation campaigns targeting electoral processes, sectarian divisions, and resource competition in Africa and the Middle East. The most supported hypothesis is that state-sponsored actors, primarily from Russia, China, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, are the main architects of these sophisticated operations. Confidence level: High. Recommended action: Enhance regional cooperation and invest in AI detection and counter-disinformation capabilities.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: State-sponsored actors from Russia, China, UAE, and Saudi Arabia are primarily responsible for the increase in AI disinformation campaigns, leveraging advanced AI technologies to influence regional stability and resource competition.

2. **Hypothesis B**: Non-state actors, including independent cybercriminal groups and regional political factions, are the main drivers of AI disinformation, exploiting the lack of robust cybersecurity frameworks in the region.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported due to documented evidence of state-sponsored infrastructure and strategic objectives aligning with geopolitical interests. Hypothesis B lacks comprehensive evidence of non-state actors having the necessary resources and capabilities.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**:
– State actors have the technological capability and strategic intent to deploy sophisticated AI disinformation.
– Regional cybersecurity frameworks are insufficient to counter these threats effectively.

– **Red Flags**:
– Potential over-reliance on state actor involvement without considering emerging non-state capabilities.
– Lack of detailed evidence on the operational specifics of non-state actors.

– **Blind Spots**:
– Insufficient data on the role of local governments in either countering or inadvertently supporting disinformation.
– Limited visibility into the private sector’s preparedness against AI threats.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The proliferation of AI disinformation campaigns poses significant risks to regional security, democratic governance, and economic stability. Potential escalation scenarios include:
– **Economic**: Disinformation affecting investor confidence and market stability.
– **Cyber**: Increased cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure.
– **Geopolitical**: Heightened tensions between regional powers and external actors.
– **Psychological**: Erosion of public trust in media and government institutions.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance regional cooperation through intelligence sharing and joint cybersecurity initiatives.
• Invest in AI-driven detection and counter-disinformation technologies.
• Develop public awareness campaigns to improve media literacy and resilience against disinformation.
• Scenario-based projections:
  – **Best Case**: Successful regional collaboration mitigates disinformation impacts.
  – **Worst Case**: Unchecked disinformation leads to widespread instability.
  – **Most Likely**: Gradual improvement in detection capabilities, but persistent challenges due to evolving tactics.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

The report does not specify individual names. Key entities include state actors from Russia, China, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, as well as regional governments and cybersecurity firms.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus