Published on: 2025-02-25

Intelligence Report: Aid freezes and withdrawals leave Sudans needy battling famine alone – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The humanitarian crisis in Sudan is escalating due to the withdrawal and freezing of international aid, leaving millions at risk of famine. The situation is exacerbated by ongoing conflict between rival factions, leading to significant displacement and acute hunger. Immediate international intervention is required to prevent a large-scale humanitarian disaster.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

Scenario Analysis

The ongoing conflict and aid withdrawal present several scenarios:

• Continued conflict and aid freeze could lead to widespread famine, destabilizing the region further.
• International intervention could stabilize the situation, allowing aid to resume and reducing the humanitarian impact.
• Failure to address the crisis may result in increased refugee flows and regional instability.

Key Assumptions Check

Key assumptions include:

• International aid is crucial for preventing famine in Sudan.
• The conflict between rival factions will continue to impede humanitarian efforts.
• Without intervention, the humanitarian crisis will worsen, affecting regional stability.

Indicators Development

Indicators of escalating threats include:

• Increased reports of acute hunger and displacement.
• Continued violence and formation of rival governments.
• International community’s response to the crisis, including aid resumption or further sanctions.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The crisis in Sudan poses several strategic risks:

• National security risks due to increased instability and potential for extremist group exploitation.
• Regional instability as neighboring countries may face refugee influxes.
• Economic impacts due to disrupted trade routes and humanitarian aid costs.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Advocate for international diplomatic efforts to mediate the conflict and resume aid.
• Enhance monitoring of the situation to provide timely humanitarian assistance.
• Encourage regional cooperation to manage refugee flows and maintain stability.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: International intervention leads to a ceasefire, allowing aid to resume and stabilizing the region.
Worst-case scenario: Continued conflict and aid freeze result in widespread famine and regional destabilization.
Most likely scenario: Partial aid resumption with ongoing conflict, leading to a protracted humanitarian crisis.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:

• Yahya Kalilah
• Ali Youssef
• Doctors Without Borders
• World Food Programme
• USAID