Published on: 2025-11-02

Intelligence Report: American strategy of ‘regime change’ is over says US national intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard – The Times of India

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The strategic judgment indicates a shift in U.S. foreign policy away from regime change and nation-building towards economic prosperity and regional stability. The hypothesis that this shift is genuine and strategic is better supported. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor U.S. military and diplomatic engagements for alignment with stated policy changes.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Genuine Policy Shift**: The U.S. has strategically decided to abandon regime change and nation-building in favor of promoting economic prosperity and regional stability, as articulated by Tulsi Gabbard and aligned with Donald Trump’s previous statements.

2. **Strategic Deception or Temporary Shift**: The statements are part of a strategic deception or a temporary shift to manage current geopolitical tensions, with potential for future reversals back to regime change tactics.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**:
– The U.S. leadership is unified in its commitment to the new strategy.
– Regional partners will align with the U.S. shift in strategy.

– **Red Flags**:
– Historical inconsistency in U.S. foreign policy.
– Ongoing military actions and covert operations that contradict the stated policy.
– Lack of detailed implementation plans for the new strategy.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Implications**: A genuine shift could lead to improved regional stability and economic growth. However, if perceived as a strategic deception, it may erode trust with allies and embolden adversaries.
– **Strategic Risks**: Potential for misalignment with allies, increased influence of adversarial powers in the region, and domestic political backlash if the policy shift is seen as ineffective or insincere.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor U.S. military deployments and diplomatic initiatives for consistency with the stated policy shift.
• Engage with regional partners to assess their perceptions and responses to the U.S. policy change.
• Scenario Projections:
  • **Best Case**: Successful realignment leads to regional stability and economic growth.
  • **Worst Case**: Policy is perceived as insincere, leading to increased regional tensions and loss of U.S. influence.
  • **Most Likely**: Incremental changes with mixed results, requiring ongoing adjustments and diplomatic efforts.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Tulsi Gabbard
– Donald Trump
– Ahmad al-Sharaa

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus