Published on: 2025-09-02

Intelligence Report: Americas Gaza Policy Is a Bipartisan Catastrophe – The New Republic

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The analysis suggests that the U.S. policy towards Gaza, characterized by bipartisan support for Israel, has exacerbated regional instability and undermined U.S. strategic interests. The most supported hypothesis is that continued U.S. backing of Israel’s actions in Gaza without addressing humanitarian concerns will lead to increased regional isolation and potential security threats. Confidence Level: Moderate. Recommended action includes reassessing U.S. policy to balance support for Israel with humanitarian considerations in Gaza.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The U.S. bipartisan support for Israel’s actions in Gaza is strategically justified to maintain a key regional ally and counterbalance Iranian influence.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The U.S. policy is counterproductive, leading to increased regional instability and undermining U.S. moral authority and strategic interests.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis B is better supported due to the growing international consensus on Israel’s actions being potentially war crimes, increasing regional isolation, and the moral and strategic costs highlighted in the source.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**:
– U.S. support for Israel is primarily driven by strategic interests.
– International consensus and public opinion significantly impact U.S. foreign policy.
– **Red Flags**:
– Potential cognitive bias in underestimating the impact of humanitarian issues on strategic alliances.
– Lack of data on internal U.S. policy deliberations and dissent.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Patterns**: Increasing international condemnation of Israel’s actions could lead to diplomatic isolation for the U.S.
– **Cascading Threats**: Rising anti-American sentiment in the Arab world could foster new security threats.
– **Potential Escalation**: Continued U.S. support without addressing humanitarian issues could lead to broader regional conflicts involving Iran or other state actors.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Reassess U.S. policy to incorporate humanitarian considerations in Gaza, potentially through diplomatic engagement with regional partners.
• Scenario Projections:
  – **Best Case**: U.S. policy shift leads to improved humanitarian conditions and stabilizes regional relations.
  – **Worst Case**: Continued support without change exacerbates regional tensions and leads to broader conflict.
  – **Most Likely**: Incremental policy adjustments with limited impact on the ground but improved international standing.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Anas al Sharif (Al Jazeera journalist)
– Benjamin Netanyahu
– Joe Biden
– Donald Trump
– Mohammed bin Salman

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional focus, geopolitical strategy, humanitarian issues