Published on: 2025-07-26

Intelligence Report: Amid Rising Fascism the Left Looks for Action It Should Also Ask Questions – Truthout

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The analysis suggests a moderate confidence level in the hypothesis that the rise of fascism is intertwined with historical and ongoing colonial practices, necessitating a combined anti-fascist and anti-colonial approach. The recommended action is to foster interdisciplinary dialogue and research to better understand these connections and inform strategic anti-fascist initiatives.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The rise of fascism in the United States is primarily a domestic issue, driven by internal political and social dynamics, and should be addressed through traditional anti-fascist strategies focused on domestic policies and reforms.

2. **Hypothesis B**: The rise of fascism is deeply linked to historical and ongoing colonial practices, both domestically and internationally. This requires an integrated approach that combines anti-fascist and anti-colonial strategies to effectively address the root causes.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), Hypothesis B is better supported by the source intelligence, which emphasizes the historical intertwining of fascism and colonialism and the need for a comprehensive approach.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions for Hypothesis A**: Assumes that fascism can be isolated from broader historical and international contexts. Relies on the belief that domestic reforms alone can address the rise of fascism.
– **Assumptions for Hypothesis B**: Assumes a significant causal relationship between colonial practices and modern fascism. Relies on the effectiveness of interdisciplinary approaches.
– **Red Flags**: Potential bias in overemphasizing historical connections without sufficient empirical evidence. Lack of clear, actionable strategies in the discourse.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Patterns**: The intertwining of fascism and colonialism suggests a persistent ideological and structural challenge that transcends national borders.
– **Cascading Threats**: Failure to address these interconnected issues could lead to increased social unrest and international tensions.
– **Potential Escalation**: Ignoring the colonial dimension may exacerbate racial and ethnic tensions, potentially leading to more radicalized movements.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Promote interdisciplinary research and dialogue to explore the connections between fascism and colonialism.
• Develop educational programs that highlight historical and contemporary links between these ideologies.
• Scenario Projections:
  • **Best Case**: Successful integration of anti-fascist and anti-colonial strategies leads to a more inclusive and equitable society.
  • **Worst Case**: Continued neglect of the colonial dimension results in heightened domestic and international conflicts.
  • **Most Likely**: Gradual recognition of the interconnectedness of these issues, leading to incremental policy changes.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Robin Kelley: Advocate for integrating anti-colonial approaches into anti-fascist strategies.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, historical analysis, anti-fascism, anti-colonialism