Published on: 2025-05-17

Intelligence Report: Another Year, Another Rise in Food Insecurity – Including Famine

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Food insecurity, including famine, continues to escalate globally, with Sudan being a critical hotspot. The situation is exacerbated by conflict, climate change, and economic shocks. Immediate and strategic interventions are required to address systemic failures and prevent further humanitarian crises.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Surface events: Rising food insecurity and confirmed famine in Sudan, particularly in the Zamzam IDP camp.
Systemic structures: Prolonged conflict, climate change, and economic instability are key drivers.
Worldviews: Global inaction and insufficient funding reflect a systemic failure to address root causes.
Myths: The belief that food insecurity is an isolated issue rather than a systemic global challenge.

Cross-Impact Simulation

The conflict in Sudan has displaced millions, increasing pressure on neighboring regions and potentially destabilizing them. Economic dependencies, such as trade routes and aid distribution, are disrupted, exacerbating regional instability.

Scenario Generation

Best Case: Increased international funding and strategic interventions stabilize food security in affected regions.
Worst Case: Continued inaction leads to widespread famine, regional instability, and increased displacement.
Most Likely: Incremental improvements in some areas, but systemic challenges persist without significant intervention.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing food insecurity crisis poses significant risks, including political destabilization, increased migration, and potential for conflict over resources. Economic shocks and climate change are likely to exacerbate these risks, creating a feedback loop of instability.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance international funding for food security initiatives, focusing on long-term resilience and capacity building.
• Develop integrated strategies that address climate change impacts, conflict resolution, and economic stabilization.
• Scenario-based projections suggest prioritizing immediate humanitarian aid while planning for sustainable development.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

António Guterres, Cindy McCain

6. Thematic Tags

food insecurity, humanitarian crisis, climate change, conflict resolution, economic instability