Published on: 2025-09-06

Intelligence Report: Anti-Naxal operations 30 new bases to be opened in Chhattisgarh forces to intensify action – The Times of India

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The strategic judgment is that the establishment of 30 new bases in Chhattisgarh is likely to intensify anti-Naxal operations, potentially leading to a significant reduction in Naxalite influence in the region. The most supported hypothesis is that these actions are part of a coordinated effort to meet the Union Government’s deadline to end Left Wing Extremism (LWE) by March. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms and community engagement to ensure sustainable peace efforts.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The establishment of new bases and intensified operations will effectively dismantle Naxalite networks in Chhattisgarh, meeting the government’s deadline to end LWE.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The increased military presence may lead to short-term disruption of Naxalite activities but could also result in increased resistance and violence, prolonging the conflict.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported by the strategic deployment of specialized forces like the CRPF and Cobra battalions, which have shown effectiveness in past operations. However, Hypothesis B cannot be discounted due to the historical resilience of Naxalite groups and potential for civilian backlash.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The assumption that increased military presence will lead to the dismantling of Naxalite networks may overlook the socio-political roots of the insurgency.
– **Red Flags**: Lack of detailed information on local population support for Naxalite groups and potential for collateral damage could undermine operations.
– **Blind Spots**: The report does not address potential external support for Naxalites or the impact of operations on local communities.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Escalation Scenarios**: Increased military operations may provoke retaliatory attacks by Naxalites, potentially leading to higher civilian casualties and destabilization.
– **Geopolitical Dimensions**: Success in Chhattisgarh could shift Naxalite activities to neighboring states, requiring a broader regional strategy.
– **Psychological Impact**: Prolonged conflict may erode public trust in government efforts and increase sympathy for Naxalite causes.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence-sharing and coordination among security forces to preempt Naxalite counteractions.
• Engage local communities through development programs to address underlying grievances and reduce support for Naxalites.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful dismantling of Naxalite networks by March, leading to long-term stability.
  • Worst Case: Escalation of violence and civilian casualties, prolonging conflict beyond the deadline.
  • Most Likely: Gradual reduction in Naxalite activities with sporadic violence continuing past the deadline.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Govind Mohan
– Tapan Deka
– Gyanendra Pratap Singh
– Arun Dev Gautam

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus