Published on: 2025-06-10

Intelligence Report: Areas near Sudan’s Khartoum at Risk of Famine Says UN Agency – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has identified areas near Khartoum, particularly the town of Jabal Awliya, as being at severe risk of famine due to ongoing civil conflict. The situation is exacerbated by limited access to essential resources and services, including water, healthcare, and electricity. Immediate international intervention is required to prevent a humanitarian disaster.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Cognitive Bias Stress Test

Potential biases were identified and mitigated through structured challenge processes, ensuring an objective assessment of the famine risk in Sudan.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Probabilistic forecasting indicates a high likelihood of escalating humanitarian crises if current conditions persist without intervention.

Network Influence Mapping

The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has been mapped to understand power dynamics and their impact on humanitarian access and relief efforts.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflict in Sudan poses significant risks, including widespread famine, increased displacement, and regional instability. The humanitarian crisis could lead to further international displacement, straining neighboring countries and potentially destabilizing the region. The lack of access to basic services and resources increases the risk of disease outbreaks, such as cholera, further complicating relief efforts.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate international funding and logistical support are crucial to prevent famine and address the humanitarian needs in affected areas.
• Scenario-based projections suggest that without intervention, the worst-case scenario involves widespread famine and increased mortality rates. The best-case scenario involves stabilizing the situation through coordinated international efforts.
• Encourage diplomatic efforts to facilitate a ceasefire and allow humanitarian access to affected regions.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Laurent Bukera (WFP Sudan Representative)

6. Thematic Tags

humanitarian crisis, famine risk, Sudan conflict, international intervention