Published on: 2025-04-05

Intelligence Report: Azerbaijan Israel Likely to Further Expand Cooperation in Energy – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Azerbaijan and Israel are poised to deepen their cooperation in the energy sector, leveraging their longstanding diplomatic relationship. This collaboration is crucial for Israel’s energy diversification and Azerbaijan’s strategic expansion in the energy market. Despite regional conflicts, both nations are committed to advancing joint energy projects, which include exploration and extraction of natural gas in Israel’s economic waters.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

Azerbaijan and Israel have maintained a robust diplomatic relationship for over thirty years, with Azerbaijan being a key supplier of crude oil and gas to Israel. The strategic partnership is set to expand with new agreements involving energy exploration and extraction. The collaboration includes a consortium formed by British Petroleum, NewMed Energy, and SOCAR, focusing on exploring and drilling natural gas in northern Israel’s economic waters. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to diversify energy sources and reduce reliance on Russian gas, especially in light of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The expansion of energy cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel carries several implications and risks:

• **Regional Stability**: The partnership may exacerbate tensions with neighboring countries and non-state actors opposed to Israel’s energy initiatives.
• **Economic Interests**: Successful energy exploration could significantly boost Israel’s economy and provide a stable energy supply to Europe, reducing dependency on Russian gas.
• **National Security**: The ongoing conflicts involving Hamas, Houthis, and Hezbollah pose risks to infrastructure and personnel involved in energy projects.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance security measures around energy infrastructure to mitigate risks from regional conflicts.
• Strengthen diplomatic efforts to ensure regional cooperation and minimize opposition to energy projects.
• Invest in technological advancements to optimize energy exploration and extraction processes.

Outlook:

In the best-case scenario, successful energy exploration will lead to increased energy exports, bolstering Israel’s economy and providing Europe with alternative energy sources. In the worst-case scenario, regional conflicts could disrupt projects, leading to economic and security setbacks. The most likely outcome involves gradual progress in energy cooperation, with potential delays due to geopolitical tensions.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations involved in the energy cooperation:

• Eli Cohen
• Mikayil Jabbarov
• SOCAR
• British Petroleum (BP)
• NewMed Energy