Published on: 2025-10-18

Intelligence Report: Belgium rallies EU support to greenlight Afghans deportations – EURACTIV

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Belgium is spearheading an initiative to coordinate EU-wide deportations of Afghans, citing public order and security concerns. The most supported hypothesis is that this initiative is primarily driven by internal security concerns and political pressures within the EU. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor EU member states’ responses and prepare for potential diplomatic fallout with Afghanistan and human rights organizations.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Security-Driven Hypothesis**: The initiative is primarily motivated by genuine security concerns about irregular Afghan nationals and the potential threat they pose to public order within the EU.

2. **Political-Driven Hypothesis**: The initiative is largely a political maneuver to address domestic pressures related to migration and to demonstrate control over EU borders, with security concerns being secondary.

Using ACH 2.0, the Security-Driven Hypothesis is better supported by the emphasis on public order and the involvement of multiple EU countries, suggesting a coordinated response to perceived security threats.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The initiative assumes that deportations will effectively mitigate security threats and that Afghanistan can safely receive returnees.
– **Red Flags**: Lack of formal recognition of the Taliban regime by Germany raises questions about the feasibility of deportations. The absence of detailed plans for reintegration in Afghanistan is a potential oversight.
– **Bias**: Potential cognitive bias towards viewing migration primarily as a security issue, possibly overlooking humanitarian aspects.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Geopolitical Risks**: Strained relations with Afghanistan and potential backlash from human rights organizations could arise.
– **Economic Risks**: Costs associated with deportations and reintegration efforts could strain EU resources.
– **Psychological Risks**: Increased anxiety among Afghan communities in the EU could lead to social unrest.
– **Cascading Threats**: Potential for increased radicalization if deportations are perceived as unjust or discriminatory.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic dialogue with Afghanistan to ensure safe and humane deportations.
• Develop comprehensive reintegration programs to support returnees and mitigate security risks.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful coordination leads to enhanced EU security and stable relations with Afghanistan.
  • Worst Case: Diplomatic fallout and increased radicalization due to perceived injustices.
  • Most Likely: Mixed outcomes with some security improvements but ongoing diplomatic challenges.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Anneleen Van Bossuyt
– Magnus Brunner
– Alexander Dobrindt
– Friedrich Merz

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, migration policy, EU coordination, geopolitical relations