Published on: 2025-10-20

Intelligence Report: Bolivia Centrist Paz wins presidency preliminary results – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The election of Rodrigo Paz as Bolivia’s president marks a potential shift in economic and foreign policy, moving away from the socialist policies of the MAS party. The most supported hypothesis is that Paz’s presidency will lead to moderate economic reforms and improved international relations, particularly with the United States. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor policy implementation and public response, especially regarding economic reforms and foreign relations.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Rodrigo Paz will successfully implement moderate economic reforms, stabilizing the Bolivian economy and improving international relations, particularly with the United States.
Hypothesis 2: Paz’s presidency will face significant domestic resistance, leading to policy gridlock and limited economic reform, maintaining Bolivia’s current economic challenges.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions:
– Paz has the political capital and public support to implement his proposed reforms.
– Improved relations with the United States will lead to economic benefits for Bolivia.
Red Flags:
– Potential underestimation of domestic opposition from unions and MAS supporters.
– Lack of detailed plans on how Paz will manage the transition from socialist policies to a more market-oriented approach.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– Economic reforms could lead to short-term instability if not managed carefully, especially regarding fuel subsidies and currency stabilization.
– Failure to deliver on economic promises may lead to social unrest and political instability.
– Strengthened ties with the United States could provoke regional tensions, particularly with countries aligned with MAS ideologies.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor the implementation of economic reforms and public response, focusing on potential unrest related to subsidy changes.
• Engage in diplomatic efforts to support Bolivia’s economic transition and foster stable international relations.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful economic reforms lead to stabilization and growth, improving Bolivia’s international standing.
  • Worst Case: Economic reforms fail, leading to widespread unrest and political instability.
  • Most Likely: Gradual implementation of reforms with mixed public response, requiring ongoing adjustments.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Rodrigo Paz, Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, Evo Morales, Edmand Lara, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, Javier Milei

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, economic reform, foreign relations, regional focus