Published on: 2025-06-07

Intelligence Report: Cameroon The world’s most neglected refugee crisis – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Cameroon is experiencing one of the world’s most neglected refugee crises, exacerbated by internal conflicts and regional instability. The lack of international attention and inadequate funding has left millions displaced and vulnerable. Key recommendations include increasing diplomatic engagement, enhancing humanitarian aid, and implementing targeted sanctions to pressure conflict resolution.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

ACH 2.0

Analyzing the intentions of threat actors in Cameroon suggests a strategic aim to destabilize the region through secessionist movements and Islamist militancy. The ongoing conflict in the Anglophone regions and the activities of Boko Haram and ISWAP in the north highlight a complex security landscape.

Indicators Development

Monitoring digital platforms reveals patterns of radicalization and propaganda dissemination, indicating potential for increased recruitment and operational planning by extremist groups.

Narrative Pattern Analysis

Extremist narratives in Cameroon are adapting to local grievances, enhancing recruitment and incitement efforts. The portrayal of government forces as oppressors is a recurring theme used to justify violence and gain local support.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing conflicts in Cameroon pose significant risks, including regional destabilization, increased refugee flows, and potential spillover into neighboring countries. The humanitarian crisis exacerbates economic vulnerabilities, while the presence of extremist groups heightens security threats. These dynamics could lead to broader geopolitical instability in Central Africa.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance diplomatic efforts to mediate conflicts and promote dialogue between conflicting parties.
• Increase humanitarian aid and funding to address the needs of displaced populations and support local communities.
• Implement targeted sanctions against individuals and groups perpetuating violence to pressure conflict resolution.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful mediation leads to a ceasefire and gradual return of displaced persons.
  • Worst Case: Escalation of violence results in regional conflict and increased refugee outflows.
  • Most Likely: Continued low-intensity conflict with sporadic violence and limited international intervention.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Laila Matar, Remadji Hoinathy, Haoua

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, humanitarian crisis, regional instability, counter-terrorism