Published on: 2025-11-06

Intelligence Report: Can coastal West Africa push back Sahel terrorists – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Coastal West Africa faces significant challenges in countering the southward spread of Sahel-based terrorist groups. The most supported hypothesis suggests that without enhanced regional cooperation and intelligence sharing, these groups will continue to exploit ungoverned spaces and socio-economic vulnerabilities. Confidence Level: Moderate. Recommended action includes strengthening regional alliances and socio-economic initiatives to address underlying grievances.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: Coastal West African states can effectively counter the spread of Sahel-based terrorist groups through enhanced military cooperation and intelligence sharing.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The lack of regional cooperation and socio-economic development will allow terrorist groups to continue their southward expansion and entrenchment in coastal regions.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0, Hypothesis B is better supported due to current mistrust among states, insufficient intelligence sharing, and socio-economic vulnerabilities that terrorist groups exploit.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: Hypothesis A assumes that existing military and intelligence frameworks can be rapidly improved. Hypothesis B assumes that socio-economic conditions will remain unaddressed.
– **Red Flags**: Mistrust and insufficient intelligence sharing are critical barriers. The assumption that military solutions alone can counter terrorism may overlook socio-economic drivers.
– **Blind Spots**: Potential external support for terrorist groups and the role of illicit economies are not fully explored.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Cascading Threats**: Continued terrorist expansion could destabilize coastal economies, disrupt trade routes, and increase refugee flows.
– **Potential Escalation**: Failure to address socio-economic grievances may lead to increased recruitment by terrorist groups.
– **Geopolitical Dimension**: Regional instability could invite external intervention, complicating local dynamics.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance regional intelligence sharing and military cooperation through confidence-building measures.
• Implement socio-economic programs targeting youth unemployment and poverty to reduce recruitment pools.
• Scenario Projections:
  • **Best Case**: Regional cooperation improves, leading to effective containment of terrorist activities.
  • **Worst Case**: Terrorist groups establish strongholds in coastal regions, destabilizing multiple states.
  • **Most Likely**: Incremental improvements in cooperation, but continued terrorist activity due to socio-economic challenges.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– **James Barnett**: Research Fellow, Hudson Institute
– **Oluwole Ojewale**: Researcher, Institute for Security Studies
– **Jama Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen (JNIM)**: Key terrorist group involved

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus, socio-economic development