Published on: 2025-11-05

Intelligence Report: Caribbean Catastrophes The Hurricane We See and the War We Dont – CounterPunch

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The intelligence suggests two competing hypotheses: one involving a natural disaster exacerbated by climate change, and the other a geopolitical maneuver by the U.S. in the Caribbean. The hypothesis of a U.S. military operation under the guise of narcotics control is better supported given the detailed military movements and political statements. Confidence level is moderate due to the lack of corroborative evidence from independent sources. Recommended action is to increase intelligence collection on U.S. military activities and regional diplomatic communications to clarify intentions and mitigate potential escalation.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis 1**: The U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean is primarily a response to narcotics trafficking, coinciding with natural disaster relief efforts.
2. **Hypothesis 2**: The U.S. is using the guise of narcotics control and disaster relief to conduct covert military operations aimed at geopolitical influence, particularly targeting Venezuela.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis 2 is more supported due to the explicit mention of military assets and political rhetoric aimed at Venezuela, as well as the historical context of U.S. interventions in the region.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that the U.S. military buildup is not solely for humanitarian purposes. The narrative assumes a direct link between military actions and geopolitical objectives.
– **Red Flags**: Lack of independent verification of military movements and casualty figures. Potential bias in the source towards anti-U.S. sentiment.
– **Blind Spots**: Absence of regional allies’ perspectives and responses to U.S. actions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The dual crises of natural disaster and military escalation could destabilize the region, leading to humanitarian crises and increased anti-U.S. sentiment. Economically, disruptions in trade routes could occur. Geopolitically, this could strain U.S. relations with Latin American countries and provide opportunities for adversarial powers to increase influence.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence sharing with regional partners to monitor U.S. military activities.
• Engage in diplomatic dialogues with Caribbean nations to assess their perspectives and concerns.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best: U.S. operations are transparent and focused on humanitarian aid, improving regional stability.
  • Worst: Escalation into a broader conflict involving regional powers.
  • Most Likely: Continued military presence with mixed objectives, leading to prolonged regional tension.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Donald Trump
– Admiral Alvin Halsey
– Pramila Jayapal
– Janessa Goldbeck

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, geopolitical strategy, regional stability, military operations