Published on: 2025-12-19

AI-powered OSINT brief from verified open sources. Automated NLP signal extraction with human verification. See our Methodology and Why WorldWideWatchers.

Intelligence Report: Irregular warfare threats during multi-domain operations in the Indo-Pacific region topic of latest CASO Panel

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The CASO Panel highlights the increasing role of irregular warfare, particularly cognitive warfare via platforms like TikTok, in multi-domain operations in the Indo-Pacific. This poses a significant threat to U.S. national security by enabling adversaries like China to conduct information operations alongside kinetic actions. The assessment holds moderate confidence due to existing evidence of such operations but recognizes substantial information gaps.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: China is actively using TikTok and similar platforms as tools for cognitive warfare to support kinetic military operations in the Indo-Pacific. Evidence includes documented use of TikTok for propaganda during PLA Navy activities near Taiwan. Key uncertainties involve the extent of coordination between kinetic and cognitive operations.
• Hypothesis B: TikTok’s data practices are primarily commercial, with incidental use by state actors for cognitive warfare. This hypothesis is supported by the widespread nature of surveillance capitalism across platforms. Contradicting evidence includes specific instances of TikTok’s use in military contexts.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to specific instances of coordinated cognitive and kinetic operations. Indicators such as increased propaganda activity on TikTok during military operations could further support this hypothesis.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: China views cognitive warfare as integral to its military strategy; TikTok’s data collection is exploitable for state purposes; U.S. adversaries prioritize multi-domain operations.
• Information Gaps: Detailed evidence of direct coordination between TikTok operations and Chinese military actions; comprehensive data on TikTok’s internal data-sharing practices.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in attributing all TikTok activities to state-directed operations; risk of overestimating the strategic coherence of Chinese operations.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The integration of cognitive warfare into multi-domain operations could significantly alter the Indo-Pacific security landscape, challenging traditional military deterrence models.

• Political / Geopolitical: Escalation of tensions in the Indo-Pacific, particularly around Taiwan, with potential for broader regional instability.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Increased complexity in threat environments, necessitating enhanced counter-information operations capabilities.
• Cyber / Information Space: Greater emphasis on cybersecurity and information integrity to counteract adversarial cognitive operations.
• Economic / Social: Potential impacts on social cohesion and public trust in digital platforms, affecting economic stability.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance monitoring of TikTok and similar platforms for coordinated information operations; engage with allies to share intelligence on cognitive warfare tactics.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures against cognitive warfare, including public awareness campaigns and cybersecurity enhancements; strengthen partnerships with tech companies to mitigate data exploitation risks.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Effective countermeasures reduce the impact of cognitive operations, stabilizing the region.
  • Worst: Escalation of cognitive and kinetic operations leads to regional conflict.
  • Most-Likely: Continued low-level cognitive operations with periodic escalations during military activities.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Col. Ethan Diven, Dr. Mahir Ibrahimov, Dr. Dan Cox, Dr. Luke Herrington, TikTok, People’s Liberation Army Navy

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, irregular warfare, cognitive warfare, Indo-Pacific security, TikTok, multi-domain operations, information operations, China

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Cognitive Bias Stress Test: Expose and correct potential biases in assessments through red-teaming and structured challenge.
• Bayesian Scenario Modeling: Use probabilistic forecasting for conflict trajectories or escalation likelihood.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map relationships between state and non-state actors for impact estimation.

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