Published on: 2025-10-25

Intelligence Report: Chairs’ statement following 24 October Coalition of the Willing Leaders’ meeting – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that the Coalition of the Willing is strategically positioning to isolate Russia economically and militarily while bolstering Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Confidence level: High. Recommended action: Intensify diplomatic efforts to solidify international support for economic sanctions and military aid to Ukraine, while preparing for potential Russian countermeasures.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The Coalition of the Willing is focused on a comprehensive strategy to economically and militarily isolate Russia, aiming to pressure it into a ceasefire and eventual peace negotiations.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The Coalition’s actions are primarily symbolic, intended to maintain unity and morale among member states and Ukraine, with limited practical impact on Russia’s strategic calculus.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported by the coalition’s emphasis on economic sanctions, military aid, and energy resilience measures, which indicate a coordinated strategy rather than mere symbolic gestures.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The coalition assumes that increased economic pressure will significantly impact Russia’s war effort and that Ukraine can sustain its defense with external support.
– **Red Flags**: Potential overestimation of the coalition’s ability to enforce sanctions and underestimate Russia’s capacity to adapt. Lack of clarity on the coalition’s long-term commitment and potential internal dissent.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Economic Risks**: Potential for global energy market disruptions and economic backlash against coalition members.
– **Geopolitical Risks**: Escalation of tensions with Russia, potentially drawing in non-aligned states.
– **Cyber Risks**: Increased likelihood of cyberattacks on coalition members as a form of retaliation.
– **Psychological Risks**: Risk of coalition fatigue and waning public support if the conflict prolongs without clear progress.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Strengthen diplomatic channels to ensure broad international support for sanctions and military aid.
• Enhance cybersecurity measures to protect against potential retaliatory attacks.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Russia agrees to a ceasefire, leading to peace negotiations.
  • Worst Case: Escalation into broader conflict involving additional states.
  • Most Likely: Prolonged conflict with periodic escalations and continued economic strain.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Prime Minister Starmer
– President Macron
– President Zelenskyy
– President Putin
– President Trump

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, economic sanctions, military aid, geopolitical strategy, energy security