Published on: 2025-07-15

Intelligence Report: Children at Risk of Being Recruited by Hostile States

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Hostile states are increasingly targeting children and teenagers in the UK for recruitment into activities that threaten national security. This report highlights the growing threat posed by countries such as Russia, Iran, and China, which are using proxies to carry out acts of sabotage and violence. Families are urged to be vigilant and report any signs of manipulation or recruitment. Enhanced international cooperation and resource allocation are recommended to counter these threats effectively.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Cognitive Bias Stress Test

Potential biases were identified and corrected through red teaming exercises, ensuring a balanced assessment of the threat landscape.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Probabilistic forecasting indicates a moderate likelihood of increased recruitment efforts targeting minors, with potential escalation in proxy activities.

Network Influence Mapping

Influence networks of hostile states and their proxies have been mapped, revealing significant connections and potential impact on UK security.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The recruitment of minors by hostile states poses significant risks across multiple domains, including political destabilization, increased cyber threats, and potential military confrontations. The use of criminal proxies offers these states plausible deniability, complicating attribution and response efforts. The erosion of international norms further exacerbates these threats, potentially leading to increased aggression and instability.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance public awareness campaigns to educate families and educators on the signs of recruitment and manipulation.
• Strengthen international intelligence-sharing frameworks to improve threat detection and response capabilities.
• Scenario-based projections suggest that proactive measures could mitigate risks, while inaction may lead to increased recruitment and proxy activities.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Dominic Murphy, Vicki Evans, Dylan Earl

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus