Published on: 2025-09-15

Intelligence Report: China is selling its Great Firewall censorship tools to countries around the world – Osnews.com

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The analysis suggests with moderate confidence that China’s export of its Great Firewall technology to other authoritarian regimes is a strategic move to extend its influence and control over global internet governance. The most supported hypothesis is that China aims to create a network of aligned states using similar censorship tools, thereby enhancing its geopolitical leverage. Recommended actions include strengthening international coalitions to counteract the spread of such technologies and promoting open internet standards.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: China is exporting its Great Firewall technology to authoritarian regimes to expand its geopolitical influence and create a bloc of aligned states with similar internet governance models.
Hypothesis 2: The export of the Great Firewall is primarily economically motivated, with China seeking to capitalize on the demand for advanced censorship tools without a broader geopolitical strategy.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Hypothesis 1 Assumptions: Assumes a coordinated strategy by China to influence global internet governance. Assumes recipient countries are willing to align politically with China.
Hypothesis 2 Assumptions: Assumes China’s primary motivation is economic gain. Assumes no significant geopolitical strategy behind the exports.
Red Flags: Lack of direct evidence linking China’s exports to a coordinated geopolitical strategy. Potential bias in interpreting China’s intentions based on historical behavior.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The proliferation of China’s Great Firewall technology could lead to increased global internet fragmentation, with more countries adopting restrictive internet policies. This could undermine international efforts to promote open internet standards and exacerbate geopolitical tensions. The alignment of countries using similar censorship tools could also lead to coordinated actions against perceived threats, increasing the risk of regional instability.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Strengthen international coalitions to promote open internet standards and counteract the spread of censorship technologies.
• Engage in diplomatic efforts to highlight the risks of adopting such technologies to potential recipient countries.
• Scenario-based Projections:
  • Best Case: International pressure leads to a reduction in the adoption of China’s censorship tools.
  • Worst Case: A significant number of countries adopt the technology, leading to a fragmented global internet.
  • Most Likely: A gradual increase in adoption, with some countries aligning more closely with China’s internet governance model.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

The report does not specify individuals by name. The key entity involved is Geedge Network, the Chinese company reportedly exporting the Great Firewall technology.

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus