Published on: 2025-08-30

Intelligence Report: Coast Guard Cutter Mohawk returns home to Key West Florida after 75-day maritime border security patrol – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Coast Guard Cutter Mohawk’s recent patrol demonstrates a robust commitment to maritime security and interagency cooperation in the Caribbean region. The most supported hypothesis is that the patrol was primarily successful in deterring illegal activities, including drug trafficking and unlawful migration, with a moderate confidence level. Recommended actions include enhancing interagency coordination and increasing surveillance capabilities to maintain momentum against illicit activities.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The primary objective of the Mohawk’s patrol was to deter illegal drug trafficking and migration, which was largely successful due to interagency collaboration and strategic presence.

2. **Hypothesis B**: The patrol was a routine operation with limited impact on long-term deterrence of illegal activities, serving more as a symbolic gesture of presence rather than a substantive disruption of criminal networks.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported by the evidence of successful interdictions and the seizure of significant quantities of drugs, indicating effective operations and collaboration with international partners.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The effectiveness of interagency cooperation is assumed to be high, and the deterrence effect is presumed to be sustainable.
– **Red Flags**: The report lacks specific metrics on long-term impacts and does not address potential adaptive strategies by criminal organizations. There is a potential bias towards overestimating the deterrence effect.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The operation underscores the importance of sustained maritime security efforts in the Caribbean. However, there is a risk that criminal organizations may adapt by shifting routes or methods, potentially leading to increased complexity in interdiction efforts. The geopolitical stability of the region could be affected if illicit activities are not continuously countered.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms among interagency and international partners to improve real-time response capabilities.
• Invest in advanced surveillance technologies to detect and monitor illicit activities more effectively.
• Scenario Projections:
  • **Best Case**: Sustained reduction in illegal trafficking due to enhanced cooperation and technological advancements.
  • **Worst Case**: Criminal networks adapt, leading to increased trafficking through less monitored routes.
  • **Most Likely**: Continued challenges with periodic successes in interdiction, requiring ongoing adaptation of strategies.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Cmdr. Taylor Kellogg
– Jamaica Defence Force
– Joint Interagency Task Force South (JIATF-S)

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, maritime security, interagency cooperation, drug trafficking, illegal migration