Published on: 2025-04-17

Intelligence Report: Colombia suspends ceasefire with former FARC dissident group – DW (English)

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Colombian government has suspended a ceasefire with a FARC dissident faction, potentially escalating tensions in regions historically affected by conflict. This decision, while not ending peace talks, raises concerns about the stability of ongoing negotiations and the security of affected communities. Immediate measures are needed to prevent a resurgence of violence and to maintain momentum towards “total peace.”

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied:

General Analysis

The ceasefire, in effect since December 2023, was a critical component of President Gustavo Petro’s peace strategy. Its suspension highlights challenges in maintaining dialogue with dissident groups that reject the 2016 peace pact. The inability to extend the ceasefire suggests logistical and trust issues between negotiating parties. Historical patterns indicate that such suspensions often lead to increased hostilities, complicating efforts to achieve lasting peace.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The suspension poses significant risks to security, potentially leading to renewed violence in areas with weak institutional presence. Politically, it may undermine Petro’s “paz total” initiative, affecting his administration’s credibility. Economically, instability could deter investment and disrupt social programs, exacerbating poverty and displacement in affected regions. The NGO’s concerns about the breakdown of social and environmental programs underscore the broader impact on community resilience.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Facilitate immediate dialogue between the government and dissident factions to restore ceasefire conditions and prevent escalation.
• Enhance security measures in vulnerable regions to protect civilian populations and maintain public order.
• Engage international mediators to support peace negotiations and build trust among parties.
• Scenario-based projection: If negotiations stall, anticipate increased violence and displacement, necessitating humanitarian intervention and regional cooperation.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Gustavo Petro, Leonardo Gonzalez