Published on: 2025-09-09

Intelligence Report: Commercial shipping likely cut Red Sea cables that disrupted internet access experts say – BusinessLine

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The most supported hypothesis is that commercial shipping activity, specifically anchor dragging, caused the disruption of undersea cables in the Red Sea. This conclusion is drawn with moderate confidence due to the prevalence of such incidents in the region. It is recommended to enhance monitoring and protection measures for undersea cables to mitigate future disruptions.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The disruption was caused by commercial shipping activity, specifically anchor dragging, which is a common cause of undersea cable damage.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The disruption was a deliberate act by non-state actors, potentially linked to regional conflicts, such as the Houthis or other groups, aiming to destabilize communication infrastructure.

Using Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), Hypothesis A is better supported by historical data indicating that anchor dragging accounts for a significant percentage of cable disruptions. Hypothesis B lacks direct evidence linking specific groups to this incident.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that the region’s shipping activities are not adequately monitored, leading to frequent cable damage. Another assumption is that non-state actors have the capability and intent to target undersea cables.
– **Red Flags**: The lack of acknowledgment from Saudi authorities and the absence of direct evidence for deliberate sabotage are red flags. Additionally, the potential bias in attributing incidents to commercial shipping without considering geopolitical tensions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The disruption of undersea cables poses significant risks to regional internet connectivity, impacting economic activities and potentially escalating geopolitical tensions. If non-state actors are involved, there is a risk of further attacks on critical infrastructure. The incident highlights vulnerabilities in global communication networks, necessitating improved security measures.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance surveillance and monitoring of shipping activities in the Red Sea to prevent accidental cable damage.
• Strengthen international cooperation to protect undersea cables, including sharing intelligence and best practices.
• Scenario Projections:
  • **Best Case**: Improved monitoring leads to a significant reduction in cable disruptions.
  • **Worst Case**: Continued disruptions lead to prolonged internet outages, affecting regional stability.
  • **Most Likely**: Incremental improvements in monitoring reduce incidents but do not eliminate them entirely.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Doug Madory, Director of Internet Analysis at Kentik
– John Wrottesley, Committee Operation Manager

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus