Published on: 2025-10-10

Intelligence Report: Complete list of Nobel Peace Prize winners 1901-2024 – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The analysis suggests that the Nobel Peace Prize selection process is influenced by both geopolitical considerations and the evolving definition of peace. The hypothesis that the Prize is awarded based on a combination of merit and strategic political considerations is better supported. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Monitor nomination trends and geopolitical contexts to anticipate future laureates.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded purely based on the merit of contributions to peace and human rights, without external influences.
2. **Hypothesis B**: The Nobel Peace Prize selection process is influenced by geopolitical and strategic considerations, alongside merit.

Using Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), Hypothesis B is more supported due to historical instances where laureates were selected amidst significant geopolitical contexts, such as Joseph Stalin’s nomination post-World War II and the United Nations’ multiple recognitions.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The Nobel Committee operates independently and is not influenced by political pressures. The definition of “peace” remains constant over time.
– **Red Flags**: The secrecy of the selection process and the potential for political bias. The nomination of controversial figures like Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin raises questions about the criteria used.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The evolving criteria for the Nobel Peace Prize could lead to increased politicization, potentially undermining its credibility. This could affect international perceptions of legitimacy and fairness, impacting diplomatic relations and global peace initiatives. The Prize’s influence on international policy and conflict resolution could diminish if perceived as biased.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Monitor geopolitical developments and nominations to predict future trends in laureate selection.
• Engage with Nobel Committee disclosures to enhance transparency and reduce perceptions of bias.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best: Increased transparency leads to enhanced credibility and influence of the Prize.
  • Worst: Continued perceptions of bias result in diminished global influence and credibility.
  • Most Likely: The Prize remains influential but faces periodic scrutiny over selection criteria.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Alfred Nobel
– Malala Yousafzai
– Joseph Rotblat
– Adolf Hitler
– Mahatma Gandhi
– Joseph Stalin
– United Nations

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, geopolitical influence, international diplomacy, peacebuilding