Published on: 2025-12-21

AI-powered OSINT brief from verified open sources. Automated NLP signal extraction with human verification. See our Methodology and Why WorldWideWatchers.

Intelligence Report: Experts fear pro-Trump paramilitary groups may become active as midterms draw near

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

There is a moderate likelihood that far-right paramilitary groups, such as the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys, may resurge as the 2026 midterms approach, potentially engaging in voter intimidation. This resurgence could be influenced by political dynamics and perceived support from high-level political figures. The primary affected parties include voters, law enforcement, and political entities. Overall confidence in this judgment is moderate.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: Far-right paramilitary groups will become active as the 2026 midterms approach due to perceived political support and strategic timing. Supporting evidence includes historical involvement in political events and current political rhetoric. Key uncertainties involve the groups’ actual capacity and willingness to mobilize.
• Hypothesis B: These groups will remain inactive due to organizational disarray and lack of cohesive leadership post-Jan. 6. Evidence includes their disappearance from public view and internal fragmentation. Contradicting evidence includes potential political motivations to reactivate.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to indications of political motivations and historical precedent. Indicators that could shift this judgment include concrete evidence of reorganization or public statements from group leaders.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: Far-right groups have the capacity to mobilize quickly; political rhetoric will continue to embolden these groups; law enforcement will maintain current levels of monitoring.
• Information Gaps: Detailed intelligence on the current organizational structure and leadership of these groups; specific plans or communications indicating intent to mobilize.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in source reporting due to political affiliations; risk of misinformation campaigns by the groups themselves to exaggerate or downplay their activities.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

These developments could lead to increased political polarization and potential civil unrest. The resurgence of these groups may also strain law enforcement resources and challenge current counter-terrorism frameworks.

• Political / Geopolitical: Escalation of political tensions and potential influence on election outcomes.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Increased threat of domestic terrorism and challenges in maintaining public safety during elections.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased propaganda and misinformation campaigns targeting voters.
• Economic / Social: Potential destabilization of social cohesion and economic impacts due to heightened security measures.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance monitoring of far-right online activities; increase coordination with local law enforcement agencies; prepare public communication strategies to counter misinformation.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for election security; strengthen partnerships with community organizations to promote social cohesion; enhance intelligence-sharing frameworks.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Groups remain inactive, and elections proceed without significant disruptions.
  • Worst: Active intimidation and violence disrupt elections, leading to widespread unrest.
  • Most-Likely: Limited resurgence with sporadic incidents of intimidation, managed by law enforcement.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Oath Keepers
• Proud Boys
• Three Percenters
• Donald Trump
• Enrique Tarrio
• Peter Simi
• Sam Jackson

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, far-right extremism, domestic terrorism, voter intimidation, political polarization, election security, misinformation, paramilitary groups

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Cognitive Bias Stress Test: Expose and correct potential biases in assessments through red-teaming and structured challenge.
• Bayesian Scenario Modeling: Use probabilistic forecasting for conflict trajectories or escalation likelihood.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map relationships between state and non-state actors for impact estimation.

Explore more:
National Security Threats Briefs ·
Daily Summary ·
Support us