Published on: 2025-02-24

Intelligence Report: Conflicts Trigger Globe’s Highest Rate of Internet Shutdowns in 2024 NGO – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The year 2024 has seen a record-breaking number of internet shutdowns globally, primarily driven by conflicts in regions such as Gaza, Ukraine, and Myanmar. These shutdowns, often employed as a tool of digital violence, have been used to disrupt civil order and target populations resisting governmental control. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been particularly affected, with Israel leading in shutdowns due to ongoing conflicts. The report underscores the need for international scrutiny and strategic interventions to safeguard civilian safety and maintain connectivity.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Some regions have robust digital infrastructure that can be quickly restored post-shutdown.
Weaknesses: Many countries lack the resilience to withstand prolonged internet disruptions.
Opportunities: International cooperation can enhance cybersecurity measures and infrastructure resilience.
Threats: Continued use of internet shutdowns as a tool for political control and suppression of dissent.

Cross-Impact Matrix

Events in conflict zones like Gaza and Ukraine have ripple effects on neighboring regions, potentially destabilizing them and leading to further shutdowns. The tactics employed in these regions may be adopted by other governments facing internal dissent.

Scenario Generation

Best-case Scenario: International pressure leads to a reduction in internet shutdowns and improved digital rights protections.
Worst-case Scenario: Escalating conflicts result in widespread and prolonged internet disruptions, severely impacting civilian life and economic activities.
Most Likely Scenario: Internet shutdowns continue at a high rate, with sporadic international interventions.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The persistent use of internet shutdowns poses significant risks to national security, regional stability, and economic interests. These disruptions hinder communication, impede access to vital services, and can exacerbate humanitarian crises. The trend of weaponizing internet shutdowns in conflict zones threatens to normalize this tactic, potentially leading to increased global instability.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance international legal frameworks to address and penalize unjustified internet shutdowns.
• Invest in technological solutions that can bypass shutdowns and maintain connectivity for civilians.
• Encourage diplomatic efforts to resolve conflicts that lead to internet disruptions.

Outlook:

Projections indicate that without significant intervention, internet shutdowns will remain a prevalent tool in conflict zones. However, increased international attention and technological advancements could mitigate some of the adverse effects. The best-case scenario involves a concerted global effort to uphold digital rights and prevent the misuse of internet shutdowns.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report references significant individuals and organizations involved in the context of internet shutdowns, including Access Now and the Digital Violence Coalition. These entities play a crucial role in documenting and advocating against the use of internet shutdowns as a tool of conflict.