Published on: 2025-03-20

Intelligence Report: Dont trust anyone Have Syrias Alawites lost faith in new government – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Alawite community in Syria is experiencing a significant loss of trust in the new government following sectarian violence in coastal regions. The violence has resulted in numerous casualties and has heightened fears of retribution against the Alawite minority. The situation poses a risk to regional stability and may lead to further sectarian conflict if not addressed promptly.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The Alawite community, traditionally aligned with the previous regime, is now facing increased insecurity due to recent sectarian violence. The violence in March, particularly in Jableh and Latakia, has resulted in hundreds of deaths, including civilians and security forces. The new government’s inability to protect the Alawites has eroded trust, with fears of further sectarian reprisals. Reports indicate that armed groups, some allegedly aligned with state forces, have been involved in extrajudicial killings, raising concerns about the government’s control over its security apparatus.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing violence and lack of trust in the government have several implications:

• Increased risk of sectarian conflict, potentially destabilizing the region further.
• Potential for humanitarian crises as communities face violence and displacement.
• Challenges to national security as the government struggles to maintain control over armed factions.
• Economic impacts due to instability and potential sanctions or international interventions.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance security measures to protect vulnerable communities, particularly the Alawites, from sectarian violence.
• Initiate dialogue between conflicting groups to foster reconciliation and reduce tensions.
• Strengthen the government’s control over armed factions to prevent extrajudicial actions.
• Engage international partners to support peacekeeping and humanitarian efforts.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: The government successfully implements protective measures and engages in dialogue, leading to reduced violence and increased stability.

Worst-case scenario: Sectarian violence escalates, resulting in widespread conflict and humanitarian crises.

Most likely outcome: Continued tensions with sporadic violence, requiring ongoing international attention and intervention.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations involved in the current situation:

• Ibrahim – An Alawite individual whose family was affected by the violence.
• Mazen – Cousin of Ibrahim, who provided insights into the situation.
• Ahmed – Interim president who promised protection for minorities.
• Fadel Abdul Ghany – Provided analysis on the violations committed.
• Abu Yasser Bara – Spokesperson for the ministry of defense, commenting on investigations.