Published on: 2026-02-12

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Intelligence Report: Three children killed in drone strike on mosque in central Sudan Doctors

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

A drone strike attributed to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on a mosque in North Kordofan, Sudan, resulted in the deaths of three children and injuries to 13 others. This incident is part of a broader pattern of attacks on civilian infrastructure amid ongoing civil conflict. The RSF’s actions represent a significant escalation and violation of international humanitarian law. The overall confidence in this assessment is moderate, given the source and context.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The RSF is deliberately targeting civilian and religious sites to instill fear and undermine the Sudanese Armed Forces’ support base. This is supported by the pattern of attacks on religious buildings and civilian infrastructure. However, there is uncertainty regarding the strategic intent behind these actions.
• Hypothesis B: The drone strike was a tactical error or misidentification, not a deliberate targeting of civilians. This is less supported due to the repeated nature of similar incidents and the RSF’s history of targeting civilian sites.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to consistent reports of RSF targeting civilian sites, indicating a potential strategy of intimidation. Indicators that could shift this judgment include credible evidence of misidentification or operational errors.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The RSF has operational control over the drones used; the RSF’s strategic objectives include undermining civilian morale; the Sudanese Armed Forces are not responsible for the attack.
• Information Gaps: Detailed intelligence on RSF’s command and control over drone operations; independent verification of the attack’s circumstances; motivations behind the RSF’s targeting choices.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in reports from the Sudan Doctors Network; possibility of misinformation from both RSF and Sudanese Armed Forces to manipulate international perception.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

This development could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and further destabilize the region, potentially drawing international condemnation and intervention.

• Political / Geopolitical: Increased international pressure on Sudanese factions; potential for external intervention or sanctions.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Escalation of violence could lead to increased recruitment by extremist groups exploiting the chaos.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for disinformation campaigns by involved parties to sway international opinion.
• Economic / Social: Disruption of humanitarian aid and economic activities, worsening the humanitarian situation and social unrest.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Increase monitoring of RSF activities; engage with international partners to pressure for ceasefire and humanitarian access.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures for civilian protection; strengthen partnerships with regional actors to mediate conflict resolution.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Ceasefire agreement and initiation of peace talks, triggered by international diplomatic pressure.
  • Worst: Escalation into broader regional conflict, triggered by continued civilian targeting and retaliatory actions.
  • Most-Likely: Continued low-intensity conflict with sporadic international engagement, triggered by ongoing RSF operations.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
• Sudanese Armed Forces
• Sudan Doctors Network
• United Nations
• World Food Programme (WFP)

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, civil conflict, drone warfare, humanitarian crisis, international law, religious sites, Sudan, civilian casualties

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.
• Network Influence Mapping: Map influence relationships to assess actor impact.

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