Published on: 2026-02-04

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Intelligence Report: Terrorists Use of Emerging Technologies Poses Evolving Threat to International Peace Stability Acting UN Counter-Terrorism Chief Warns Security Council

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The use of emerging technologies by ISIL/Da’esh and its affiliates represents a growing threat to international peace and security, with significant implications for global counter-terrorism efforts. The most likely hypothesis is that these groups will continue to leverage technologies such as cryptocurrencies, AI, and drones to enhance their operational capabilities and recruitment efforts. This situation primarily affects regions in Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia. Overall confidence in this assessment is moderate, given the evolving nature of the threat and existing information gaps.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: ISIL/Da’esh and affiliates will increasingly use emerging technologies to enhance their operational capabilities and recruitment efforts. This is supported by reported increased use of cryptocurrencies, cybertools, and AI. However, uncertainties include the extent of technological sophistication and resource availability.
• Hypothesis B: The impact of emerging technologies on ISIL/Da’esh’s capabilities will be limited due to counter-terrorism measures and technological barriers. While counter-terrorism efforts have been sustained, the resilience and adaptability of these groups contradict this hypothesis.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to evidence of ongoing adaptation and resilience by ISIL/Da’esh, despite counter-terrorism pressures. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include significant technological setbacks for ISIL/Da’esh or enhanced international cooperation in counter-terrorism technology use.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: ISIL/Da’esh has access to necessary technological expertise; counter-terrorism measures will not fully mitigate the use of emerging technologies; regional instability facilitates ISIL/Da’esh operations.
• Information Gaps: Specific details on the technological capabilities and infrastructure of ISIL/Da’esh; effectiveness of current counter-terrorism technology measures.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential overestimation of ISIL/Da’esh’s technological capabilities; reliance on potentially biased sources from affected regions.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The continued use of emerging technologies by ISIL/Da’esh could lead to increased recruitment and operational efficiency, potentially destabilizing affected regions further and complicating international counter-terrorism efforts.

• Political / Geopolitical: Increased pressure on regional governments and international alliances to address the threat; potential for geopolitical tensions over counter-terrorism strategies.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Enhanced threat environment requiring adaptive counter-terrorism measures; potential for increased terrorist attacks using advanced technologies.
• Cyber / Information Space: Greater use of cybertools for propaganda and recruitment; challenges in monitoring and countering digital communications.
• Economic / Social: Potential economic destabilization in affected regions; increased social unrest due to radicalization efforts.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Enhance monitoring of technological use by terrorist groups; increase intelligence sharing among international partners.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop resilience measures against emerging technology threats; strengthen partnerships with tech companies for counter-terrorism efforts.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Effective international cooperation limits ISIL/Da’esh’s technological use.
  • Worst: ISIL/Da’esh significantly enhances capabilities, leading to increased attacks.
  • Most-Likely: Continued adaptation by ISIL/Da’esh, with moderate impact on global security.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Alexandre Zouev, Acting Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism
• Natalia Gherman, Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate
• ISIL/Da’esh and its affiliated groups
• Islamic State West Africa Province
• ISIL-Khorasan (ISIL-K)

7. Thematic Tags

Counter-Terrorism, emerging technologies, ISIL/Da’esh, international security, cyber-threats, radicalization, geopolitical stability

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• ACH 2.0: Reconstruct likely threat actor intentions via hypothesis testing and structured refutation.
• Indicators Development: Track radicalization signals and propaganda patterns to anticipate operational planning.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Analyze spread/adaptation of ideological narratives for recruitment/incitement signals.

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