Published on: 2025-07-05

Intelligence Report: End is near Will Kabul become first big city without water by 2030 – Al Jazeera English

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Kabul faces a critical water crisis, with projections indicating the city could run out of water by 2030 due to unsustainable groundwater extraction, climate change, and governance failures. Immediate intervention is necessary to prevent severe humanitarian and socio-economic consequences.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Surface events highlight a drastic drop in groundwater levels. Systemic structures reveal inadequate governance and resource management. Worldviews reflect a growing urban population and increased demand. Myths include the belief in endless water resources.

Cross-Impact Simulation

The water crisis could exacerbate regional instability, potentially leading to increased migration and tension with neighboring countries over shared resources.

Scenario Generation

Best case: Effective water management and international aid stabilize the situation. Worst case: Complete depletion of water resources leads to mass displacement. Most likely: Continued deterioration without significant intervention.

Network Influence Mapping

Key actors include local government bodies, international NGOs, and private water companies. Their interactions and influence on water policy are critical.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

There is a high probability of severe water shortages by 2030 if current trends continue, with a moderate likelihood of international intervention mitigating some effects.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The water crisis poses significant risks to Kabul’s stability, potentially leading to increased poverty, health crises, and social unrest. The situation could also strain regional relations and impact global security interests.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Implement sustainable water management practices and invest in infrastructure to improve water efficiency.
• Seek international support and expertise to address governance and resource management challenges.
• Develop contingency plans for potential mass displacement scenarios.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Najibullah Sadid, Assem Mayar, Abdulhadi Achakzai

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, climate change, water scarcity, regional stability