Published on: 2026-01-03

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Intelligence Report: A great benefit to us Ex-Trump official reveals real reason behind Venezuela attack

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The recent statements by former Trump administration official Victoria Coates suggest that the U.S. attack on Venezuela may have broader geopolitical motives, particularly targeting Cuba’s economic stability. The potential implications for regional politics and security are significant, with moderate confidence in the hypothesis that the U.S. aims to destabilize Cuba by cutting off Venezuelan support. This development affects U.S.-Cuba relations and regional stability in Latin America.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The U.S. attack on Venezuela was primarily motivated by a strategic aim to destabilize Cuba by severing its economic lifeline. Supporting evidence includes Coates’ statements and historical U.S. policy towards Cuba. Contradicting evidence is the lack of explicit official statements confirming this strategy.
• Hypothesis B: The attack on Venezuela was primarily aimed at regime change within Venezuela itself, with any impact on Cuba being secondary. This is supported by the focus on Venezuelan leadership changes and the lack of direct action against Cuba. However, Coates’ comments suggest broader intentions.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported due to Coates’ explicit remarks about Cuba’s potential collapse and the historical context of U.S. policy. Key indicators that could shift this judgment include official U.S. policy statements or actions directly targeting Cuba.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The U.S. has the capability and intent to influence regime change in Cuba; Venezuelan support is critical to Cuba’s economic stability; Coates’ statements reflect broader U.S. strategic goals.
• Information Gaps: Lack of direct evidence linking U.S. actions in Venezuela to a coordinated strategy against Cuba; absence of official U.S. policy documents or statements confirming this linkage.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in Coates’ statements due to her political affiliations; risk of strategic deception by U.S. officials to obscure true motives.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

This development could lead to increased tensions in U.S.-Latin America relations, particularly if perceived as aggressive interventionism. It may also destabilize regional alliances and economic conditions.

• Political / Geopolitical: Potential for increased anti-U.S. sentiment in Latin America; risk of retaliatory measures by Cuba or allied states.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Possible escalation of military tensions in the region; increased risk of insurgency or terrorism as a response to perceived U.S. aggression.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for increased cyber operations targeting U.S. interests by affected states or their allies; heightened propaganda efforts.
• Economic / Social: Economic destabilization in Cuba could lead to increased migration pressures; potential for social unrest in affected regions.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Monitor regional political and military developments closely; engage in diplomatic efforts to clarify U.S. intentions and mitigate backlash.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Strengthen regional alliances and partnerships to support stability; develop contingency plans for potential economic or security fallout.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Successful regime change in Venezuela leads to improved regional stability.
  • Worst: Regional conflict escalates, leading to widespread instability and economic collapse in Cuba.
  • Most-Likely: Continued tensions with periodic diplomatic and economic disruptions.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Victoria Coates, former deputy national security advisor
• Nicolas Maduro, Venezuelan President
• Maria Corina Machado, Venezuelan politician
• Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexican President
• Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State

7. Thematic Tags

Counter-Terrorism, geopolitics, regime change, U.S.-Cuba relations, Latin America stability, economic sanctions, military intervention, regional security

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• ACH 2.0: Reconstruct likely threat actor intentions via hypothesis testing and structured refutation.
• Indicators Development: Track radicalization signals and propaganda patterns to anticipate operational planning.
• Narrative Pattern Analysis: Analyze spread/adaptation of ideological narratives for recruitment/incitement signals.

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