Published on: 2025-04-08

Intelligence Report: Facing calls to disarm Hezbollah ready to discuss weapons if Israel withdraws senior official say – The Jerusalem Post

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Hezbollah has expressed readiness to discuss disarmament contingent upon Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon. This development follows increased pressure from both domestic and international actors. The potential disarmament is framed within a broader national defense strategy, emphasizing the need for state control over military assets. Key stakeholders, including the Lebanese government and international allies, are urged to engage in diplomatic efforts to facilitate this transition.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The call for Hezbollah’s disarmament has gained momentum, driven by both internal political dynamics and external pressures. The Lebanese president has prioritized establishing state control over arms, signaling a shift in the balance of power within Lebanon. The historical context of conflict with Israel and the involvement of regional actors like Iran and Syria complicates the disarmament process. Hezbollah’s willingness to negotiate is conditioned on Israel’s military withdrawal, highlighting the intertwined nature of regional security issues.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The disarmament of Hezbollah poses several strategic risks and implications:

• Potential destabilization within Lebanon if negotiations fail or are perceived as biased.
• Regional security risks if Hezbollah’s disarmament leads to power vacuums or escalates tensions with Israel.
• Economic impacts due to potential shifts in foreign aid and investment contingent on Lebanon’s stability.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Engage in multilateral diplomatic efforts to ensure balanced negotiations between Hezbollah and Israel.
• Strengthen Lebanese state institutions to manage and integrate disarmed groups effectively.
• Monitor regional actors’ involvement to prevent external interference in the disarmament process.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful negotiations lead to Hezbollah’s disarmament, enhancing regional stability and economic growth in Lebanon.
Worst-case scenario: Failed negotiations result in renewed conflict, destabilizing Lebanon and the broader region.
Most likely scenario: Protracted negotiations with incremental progress, requiring sustained international engagement.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:

• Joseph Aoun
• Bashar al-Assad
• Bechara Boutros al-Rai
• Nabih Berri
• Morgan Ortagus