Published on: 2025-07-11

Intelligence Report: Forget ransomware – most firms think quantum computing is the biggest security risk to come – TechRadar

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Quantum computing is emerging as a significant security threat, with the potential to break modern encryption methods. Organizations must prioritize transitioning to quantum-safe solutions to mitigate future risks. Early adopters are already preparing for this shift, recognizing it as a strategic imperative.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Adversarial Threat Simulation

Simulations indicate that nation-state actors could exploit quantum computing to compromise encrypted data, posing a severe risk to critical infrastructure and sensitive information.

Indicators Development

Monitoring for anomalies in data encryption and decryption processes is crucial for early detection of potential quantum computing threats.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

Probabilistic models suggest a high likelihood of quantum computing advancements within the next decade, necessitating immediate strategic planning for post-quantum cryptography.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The advent of quantum computing could disrupt existing cybersecurity frameworks, leading to potential espionage and data theft. The “harvest now, decrypt later” strategy by adversaries poses a long-term threat to national security and economic stability.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Accelerate the development and implementation of quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms.
• Engage in international collaborations to establish standards for quantum-safe technologies.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best Case: Successful transition to quantum-safe encryption within five years, minimizing disruptions.
  • Worst Case: Delayed adoption leads to widespread data breaches and economic losses.
  • Most Likely: Gradual adoption with intermittent security challenges as quantum computing capabilities evolve.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Marco Pereira, Capgemini Research Institute

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, quantum computing, encryption, strategic planning