Published on: 2025-04-09

Intelligence Report: Gabon will hold its first presidential election since the 2023 military coup – ABC News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Gabon is set to hold its first presidential election since the 2023 military coup that ended a longstanding political dynasty. The interim leadership, led by Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, has promised a return to civilian rule through credible elections. The election is poised to be a pivotal moment for Gabon’s political future, with significant implications for governance, regional stability, and international relations.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

Gabon’s upcoming election marks a critical juncture following the military coup that ousted Ali Bongo Ondimba. The coup was driven by accusations of irresponsible governance and corruption. The transitional government, led by Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, has enacted a new electoral code and constitution, setting the stage for a potentially transformative election. The presence of international observers from the African Union and European Union suggests a focus on ensuring transparency and legitimacy.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The election carries significant risks and implications for Gabon’s political stability and economic prospects. Key risks include:

• Potential for political unrest if the election is perceived as unfair or manipulated.
• Economic uncertainty due to possible shifts in governance and policy direction.
• Regional instability if the election outcome leads to internal conflict or external intervention.

The election’s outcome will also influence Gabon’s relationship with France and other international partners, particularly concerning military and economic cooperation.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage transparent and fair electoral processes to ensure legitimacy and public trust.
• Monitor post-election developments closely to identify and mitigate potential unrest.
• Engage with regional and international partners to support stability and economic development.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: The election is conducted fairly, leading to a peaceful transition to civilian rule and strengthened democratic institutions.
Worst-case scenario: Allegations of electoral fraud lead to widespread unrest and potential intervention by external actors.
Most likely scenario: The election proceeds with some irregularities, but a new government is established, paving the way for gradual political and economic reforms.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations:

• Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema
• Ali Bongo Ondimba
• Alain Claude Bilie Nze
• Serge Loungou
• Laurence Ndong