Published on: 2025-02-16

Intelligence Report: Gaza After Hamas – The National Interest

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ongoing conflict in Gaza, primarily driven by Hamas’ control, presents significant challenges for regional stability and governance. The potential for a ceasefire and the release of hostages are immediate concerns. However, the long-term governance of Gaza remains unresolved, with distrust towards the Palestinian Authority (PA) and differing Israeli perspectives complicating the situation. Key recommendations include facilitating PA governance, leveraging diplomatic channels, and preventing further escalation.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Existing diplomatic channels between Israel and the United States; potential for international cooperation in peacekeeping efforts.

Weaknesses: Distrust of the PA by both Israelis and Palestinians; lack of a clear governance plan post-Hamas.

Opportunities: Potential for PA reform and governance; international support for reconstruction and economic recovery.

Threats: Resurgence of Hamas; further violence and instability; potential for regional conflict escalation.

Cross-Impact Matrix

Events in Gaza have the potential to influence regional stability, particularly affecting Egypt and Jordan. The relocation of Palestinians could strain relations and resources in neighboring countries, while successful governance transition could enhance regional cooperation.

Scenario Generation

Best-case scenario: Successful ceasefire, hostages released, PA assumes governance, and international aid supports reconstruction.

Worst-case scenario: Hamas resurgence, continued violence, and regional destabilization with increased refugee flows.

Most likely scenario: Prolonged negotiations with intermittent violence, partial PA governance, and gradual international involvement.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The primary risks include the resurgence of Hamas, continued violence, and regional destabilization. The failure to establish effective governance could lead to humanitarian crises and increased refugee flows. Additionally, the push for permanent resettlement of Jewish populations in Gaza could exacerbate tensions.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Facilitate PA governance in Gaza through diplomatic support and international cooperation.
• Engage regional partners in peacekeeping and stabilization efforts.
• Implement measures to prevent Hamas’ resurgence and ensure security.
• Encourage economic recovery and reconstruction initiatives.

Outlook:

The outlook for Gaza remains uncertain, with potential for both positive and negative developments. Continued international engagement and support for PA governance could lead to stabilization, while failure to address underlying issues may result in further conflict.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Itamar Ben Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich, Donald Trump, and Benjamin Netanyahu. Key entities include Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, and the Israeli government.