Published on: 2025-10-16

Intelligence Report: Gaza Peace Deal Has One Huge Problem Hamas Won’t Disarm – Nationalsecurityjournal.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The strategic judgment is that the Gaza peace deal is unlikely to succeed without a viable disarmament plan for Hamas. The hypothesis that Hamas will resist disarmament is better supported by current intelligence. Confidence level: Moderate. Recommended action: Develop a comprehensive disarmament strategy that includes international oversight and alternative governance structures for Gaza.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hamas Will Disarm**: This hypothesis suggests that Hamas will eventually comply with the disarmament terms of the peace deal, possibly due to international pressure or incentives.
2. **Hamas Will Not Disarm**: This hypothesis posits that Hamas will resist disarmament to maintain its power and influence in Gaza, leading to the collapse of the peace deal.

Using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) 2.0, the second hypothesis is more likely. The intelligence indicates that Hamas has already begun reasserting control and targeting dissidents, showing no intention to disarm.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: The assumption that Hamas can be incentivized to disarm overlooks its ideological commitment and historical behavior. The belief that a power vacuum can be easily filled by alternative governance is also questionable.
– **Red Flags**: The lack of a clear, enforceable disarmament process and the absence of a viable alternative government in Gaza are significant concerns.
– **Blind Spots**: The potential role of other regional actors, such as Iran or Hezbollah, in influencing Hamas’s decisions is not fully addressed.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Cascading Threats**: Failure to disarm Hamas could lead to renewed conflict, destabilizing the region further.
– **Geopolitical Risks**: A collapse of the peace deal may embolden other extremist groups and strain Israel’s relations with neighboring countries.
– **Economic Impact**: Prolonged instability will hinder Gaza’s reconstruction efforts and exacerbate humanitarian conditions.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage international stakeholders to develop a robust disarmament verification mechanism.
• Explore diplomatic channels to incentivize Hamas’s compliance, possibly through economic aid or political concessions.
• Scenario Projections:
  • Best: Successful disarmament leads to stable governance in Gaza.
  • Worst: Renewed conflict destabilizes the region, drawing in external actors.
  • Most Likely: Stalemate persists, with intermittent violence and humanitarian challenges.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Benjamin Netanyahu
– Donald Trump
– Hamas
– Palestinian Islamic Jihad

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, counter-terrorism, regional focus