Published on: 2026-01-24

AI-powered OSINT brief from verified open sources. Automated NLP signal extraction with human verification. See our Methodology and Why WorldWideWatchers.

Intelligence Report: ‘Half of my friends were killed’ – the girls returning to a school caught up in war

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The shelling of the Abu Sitta girls’ school in el-Obeid, North Kordofan, highlights the severe impact of the ongoing civil war in Sudan on civilian infrastructure and safety. The incident, attributed to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), underscores the strategic importance of the Kordofan region. With moderate confidence, it is assessed that the shelling was likely unintentional but reflects the broader risks to civilian areas in conflict zones.

2. Competing Hypotheses

• Hypothesis A: The shelling of the school was an unintentional consequence of military operations by the RSF. This is supported by the lack of a direct statement from the RSF and the chaotic nature of urban warfare. However, the absence of RSF commentary leaves uncertainty about intent.
• Hypothesis B: The shelling was a deliberate act by the RSF to instill fear and disrupt civilian life in areas under government control. This hypothesis is less supported due to the lack of explicit targeting evidence and RSF’s silence on the matter.
• Assessment: Hypothesis A is currently better supported, given the lack of direct evidence of intent and the typical collateral nature of such incidents in conflict zones. Future RSF communications or evidence of targeting could shift this assessment.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

• Assumptions: The RSF is capable of distinguishing between military and civilian targets; the shelling was not premeditated; regional control dynamics influence RSF actions.
• Information Gaps: Direct RSF communications or intelligence on the decision-making process behind the shelling; detailed casualty reports and damage assessments.
• Bias & Deception Risks: Potential bias in regional authority reports blaming the RSF; risk of RSF misinformation or strategic silence to obscure intent.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

The incident could exacerbate tensions in the Kordofan region, influencing both local and international perceptions of the conflict. The strategic importance of Kordofan as an oil-rich area heightens the stakes.

• Political / Geopolitical: Increased international scrutiny and potential diplomatic pressure on Sudanese factions.
• Security / Counter-Terrorism: Heightened risk of further civilian-targeted incidents, complicating peacekeeping and humanitarian efforts.
• Cyber / Information Space: Potential for misinformation campaigns by conflicting parties to shape narratives.
• Economic / Social: Disruption to local economies and education, exacerbating humanitarian crises and displacement.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate Actions (0–30 days): Increase monitoring of RSF communications; engage with humanitarian organizations to assess needs and provide support.
• Medium-Term Posture (1–12 months): Develop partnerships with regional actors to stabilize Kordofan; enhance intelligence-sharing on RSF activities.
• Scenario Outlook:
  • Best: Ceasefire agreements reduce civilian casualties.
  • Worst: Escalation leads to increased targeting of civilian areas.
  • Most-Likely: Continued sporadic violence with intermittent civilian impact.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

• Makarem and Ikram (students affected by the shelling)
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
• Regional authorities in North Kordofan
• Sudanese Army

7. Thematic Tags

regional conflicts, civil conflict, Sudan, civilian casualties, RSF, humanitarian crisis, strategic regions, military operations

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.

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