Published on: 2025-04-17

Intelligence Report: Haiti Escalating Violence Puts Population at Grave Risk – Human Rights Watch

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The security situation in Haiti is deteriorating rapidly due to escalating violence by criminal groups and clashes with “self-defense” groups. The capital, Port-au-Prince, is largely under the control of these groups, with only 10% remaining under government control. Immediate international intervention is necessary to stabilize the region and protect human rights. Strengthening the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS) and transforming it into a full-fledged UN operation is critical to prevent further escalation.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: The presence of international organizations like the MSS and UN provides a framework for potential stabilization efforts.
Weaknesses: Insufficient funding and personnel for law enforcement and MSS hinder effective response to violence.
Opportunities: International support could bolster MSS capabilities and transform it into a comprehensive UN mission.
Threats: Continued expansion of criminal groups and increased violence pose significant risks to regional stability and humanitarian efforts.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The violence in Port-au-Prince is influencing neighboring regions, with criminal activities spreading to the Artibonite and Center Departments. This regional instability could further destabilize Haiti and potentially affect neighboring countries through increased migration and cross-border crime.

Scenario Generation

Scenario 1: Enhanced international intervention stabilizes the situation, reducing violence and restoring government control.
Scenario 2: Continued inaction leads to further deterioration, with criminal groups gaining more territory and increasing humanitarian crises.
Scenario 3: Partial intervention results in temporary stabilization, but without long-term solutions, violence resurges.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing violence poses significant threats to Haiti’s political stability and economic recovery. The displacement of over 90,000 people exacerbates the humanitarian crisis. The infiltration of criminal groups into key infrastructure and institutions undermines governance and public trust. Without decisive action, the situation could lead to regional instability and increased international migration pressures.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate international support to enhance MSS capabilities and transform it into a full-fledged UN mission.
• Strengthen local law enforcement through training and resource allocation to regain control of affected areas.
• Engage in diplomatic efforts to address root causes of violence and promote political stability.
• Scenario-based projections suggest that without intervention, violence will continue to escalate, further destabilizing the region.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Nathalye Cotrino