Published on: 2025-02-28

Intelligence Report: Haiti Over one million displaced by gang violence – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ongoing gang violence in Haiti has resulted in the displacement of over one million people, nearly a tenth of the population. This unprecedented crisis is exacerbated by dwindling global humanitarian funding and recent decisions by the United States to halt foreign disbursements. The situation poses significant humanitarian challenges, with increased human rights violations and a dire need for food and medical assistance.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: International awareness and potential for global support.
Weaknesses: Limited resources and infrastructure to handle the crisis.
Opportunities: Potential for international intervention to stabilize the region.
Threats: Escalation of violence and further displacement of populations.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The crisis in Haiti may influence neighboring regions, particularly the Dominican Republic, through increased refugee flows and potential cross-border tensions. The halt in U.S. disbursements could impact regional security dynamics and humanitarian operations.

Scenario Generation

Best-case scenario: International intervention stabilizes the region, and humanitarian aid is restored.
Worst-case scenario: Violence escalates, leading to further displacement and regional instability.
Most likely scenario: Continued violence with intermittent international support, leading to prolonged humanitarian challenges.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The displacement crisis in Haiti poses significant risks to regional stability and national security. The rise in human rights violations and the recruitment of children into gangs highlight the urgent need for intervention. Economic interests are threatened by the instability, which could deter investment and development in the region.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance international cooperation to restore humanitarian funding and support.
• Implement regulatory changes to facilitate the flow of aid and resources into affected areas.
• Strengthen regional security measures to prevent the spread of violence and instability.

Outlook:

Projections indicate that without significant intervention, the crisis will continue to deteriorate. A coordinated international response could stabilize the situation, while inaction may lead to further humanitarian and security challenges.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Ulrika Johnson and António Guterres. Key organizations include the United Nations and UNICEF, which are pivotal in addressing the crisis.