Published on: 2025-07-02

Intelligence Report: Haiti’s gangs have ‘near-total control’ of the capital as violence escalates UN says – Japan Today

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The situation in Haiti is rapidly deteriorating as gangs gain near-total control over the capital, Port-au-Prince. The inability of local authorities to manage escalating violence is leading to a potential collapse of state functions. Immediate international intervention is critical to prevent further destabilization.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

– **Surface Events**: Increased gang violence and control over Port-au-Prince.
– **Systemic Structures**: Weak governance, ineffective law enforcement, and economic instability.
– **Worldviews**: Distrust in government capabilities and international intervention.
– **Myths**: Perception of gangs as alternative governance structures.

Cross-Impact Simulation

– Potential spillover effects into neighboring countries, affecting regional stability.
– Disruption of trade routes impacting economic dependencies in the Caribbean.

Scenario Generation

– **Best Case**: Successful international intervention stabilizes the situation.
– **Worst Case**: Total collapse of state functions leading to a humanitarian crisis.
– **Most Likely**: Continued gang dominance with sporadic international support.

Bayesian Scenario Modeling

– High probability of increased violence and territorial expansion by gangs if no intervention occurs.
– Moderate probability of international intervention stabilizing key areas.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The growing power of gangs poses significant risks to national security and economic stability. The potential for increased human rights violations and regional destabilization is high. The lack of effective governance creates vulnerabilities that could be exploited by transnational criminal organizations.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Immediate deployment of international peacekeeping forces to stabilize key areas.
• Strengthening of local law enforcement through training and resources.
• Engagement with regional partners to address cross-border implications.
• Scenario-based projections suggest prioritizing humanitarian aid to prevent a crisis.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

– Ghada Fathy Waly
– Miroslav Jenca

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, regional stability, humanitarian crisis, governance, international intervention