Published on: 2025-06-09

Intelligence Report: Hamas vows ‘war of attrition’ against Israel with ‘renewed field tactics’ – Globalsecurity.org

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Hamas has declared a strategy of ‘war of attrition’ against Israel, employing renewed field tactics in response to ongoing military actions in Gaza. This development signals a potential escalation in hostilities and a shift in operational tactics. Key recommendations include enhancing intelligence monitoring and preparing for potential regional destabilization.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied to ensure methodological consistency:

ACH 2.0

Hamas’s intentions appear to focus on prolonging conflict to exhaust Israeli resources and morale, leveraging tactical adaptations to counter Israeli military strategies.

Indicators Development

Monitoring of digital platforms for radicalization and propaganda is crucial to anticipate further operational planning and recruitment efforts.

Narrative Pattern Analysis

Hamas’s narrative emphasizes resistance and victimization, potentially increasing recruitment and support among sympathizers and influencing regional sentiment.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The shift to a war of attrition could lead to prolonged conflict, increasing civilian casualties and regional instability. There is a risk of broader geopolitical tensions, particularly involving neighboring countries and international stakeholders. Economic impacts may include disruptions to trade and increased military expenditures.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

• Enhance intelligence gathering on Hamas’s tactical shifts and potential alliances.
• Strengthen diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and engage regional partners in conflict resolution.
• Scenario-based projections:
  • Best Case: Successful mediation leads to a ceasefire and negotiations.
  • Worst Case: Escalation into a broader regional conflict involving multiple state and non-state actors.
  • Most Likely: Continued low-intensity conflict with periodic escalations.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

Benjamin Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant, Rami Abu Zubaydah

6. Thematic Tags

national security threats, cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, regional focus