Published on: 2025-03-17

Intelligence Report: Herdsmen killings Time to ban open grazing – The Punch

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The recent surge in violence attributed to herdsmen in Nigeria, particularly in Ondo, Benue, Edo, and Nasarawa states, underscores the urgent need for the federal government to ban open grazing. The persistent conflict between herders and farmers is exacerbating national insecurity and hindering peace and food security. Immediate action is required to adopt ranching as a sustainable solution to mitigate these conflicts and enhance security.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

General Analysis

The spate of killings in various states highlights a pattern of violence linked to herdsmen and banditry. The failure to effectively manage the herder-farmer relationship has led to increased tensions and violence. Historical attempts to establish grazing routes and ranches have not been fully implemented, leading to continued conflict. The rise in herder-farmer conflicts is now considered as deadly as the Boko Haram insurgency, posing a grave security challenge to Nigeria.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The ongoing violence poses significant risks to national security, regional stability, and economic interests. The inability to control herdsmen-related violence could lead to further destabilization, affecting agricultural productivity and food security. The international perception of Nigeria’s security situation may also impact foreign investment and diplomatic relations.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Implement a nationwide ban on open grazing and promote ranching as a sustainable alternative.
• Enhance security measures in affected regions to prevent further violence and protect communities.
• Facilitate dialogue between herders and farmers to foster mutual understanding and cooperation.
• Invest in technological solutions for monitoring and managing livestock movements.

Outlook:

Best-case scenario: Successful implementation of ranching leads to reduced conflicts and improved security, fostering economic growth and stability.
Worst-case scenario: Continued inaction results in escalating violence, further destabilizing affected regions and impacting national security.
Most likely outcome: Partial implementation of recommendations leads to gradual improvements, with ongoing challenges in fully resolving the conflict.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Bola Tinubu and entities like the International Crisis Group and the Catholic Diocese of Makurdi. These individuals and organizations play crucial roles in addressing the herdsmen-related violence and advocating for policy changes.